April 30, 1997

Washington, D. C.

April 30, 1997

Venezuelan Political Update

What has happened to Venezuela? The stable, two-party democracy that created a stable political atmosphere for thirty-five years, from the fall of Perez Jiminez in 1958 through the second election of Carlos Andrez Perez in 1988 has been replaced by the electoral equivalent of chaos.

Parties have been discarded by the electorate. The two predominant parties, Accion Democratica and COPEI, who between them controlled government from 1958 through 1993, and whose electoral strength reached as high as 90%, now enjoy the combined support of 18% of the Venezuelan people. (AD has 12%; COPEI has 6%) This collapse has not seen the emergence of other parties. AD and COPEI are still the two leading parties in the nation. All parties command the support of 38% of the voters.

With 70% of the population of Venezuela under 35, almost one half of the eligible voters next year will have come to age since there was an established, stable party system. Nobody knows where they will go – and their participation rate is likely to be low.

Why has this happened? The successive failed presidencies of Lusinchi (1984-1989) and Perez (1989-1994) exposed the corruption in government and painted all politicians as opportunistic, corrupt and uncaring people and all public agencies inefficient. The parties, as a collection of politicians, came to symbolize the corruption and inefficiency in the society.

In 1993, Rafael Caldera was elected President without the support – in fact with the bitter feelings of his COPEI party. He presented himself as a man of character, honesty, experience, patriotism and with a lifetime commitment to his country. His victory, with just over 30% of the vote, proved that parties are not as important as they had been in the electoral process. Many believe that Caldera’s public split with COPEI helped his campaign by demonstrating his independence from party

Accion Democratica has fared best in this chaotic, anti-party climate. They have enjoyed the strong leadership of Luis Alfaro, a man whose skills at backstage management and control of the party apparatus has saved AD from collapse AD has been quite successful in state and local elections in the past year and with the support of the labor syndicates, it has a strong and disciplined party structure throughout most of the nation. It controls half of the 22 state governments and more than half of the 331 mayors.

COPEI is in a state of collapse. Its goal is survival. The other parties have always been small and seldom important.

The predictability of Venezuelan politics has vanished. As the electoral period approaches (Venezuelan campaigns are inordinately long with the public period lasting almost two years), there is no front runner and no consensus of even who the candidates might be. And public campaigning has not yet begun.

The front runner in the polls today is Chacao Mayor Irene Saez, more known for her reign as Miss Universe than for her mayoral success. She runs the municipality of Chacao, an upscale hole in the donut of Caracas. She has polled from 25-49 percent in recent polls. Irene is not affiliated with any party, but has ties to COPEI. She has the support of the party leader (and former President) Luis Herrera Campins, and the COPEI governor of Miranda, Enrique Mendoza – her campaign manager in past campaigns. She is currently underground. A high profile earlier this year cut her support by 25%.

Next in the polls is Claudio Fermin, the runner up to Caldera in 1993 as the AD candidate. He is at 16% – even though he has been out of the country for the past three years. The 1993 candidate of COPEI has disappeared and the top COPEI candidate in the polls, Eduardo Fernandez is at 3%.

Today, opinion is that only the party which can be a supporting force to a candidacy is AD. It has elected 5 of the last 8 presidents, controls the local and state governments in a majority of the nation and has a real, vote-delivering organization. It has three major leaders who each aspire to the nomination. These are Fermin who feels he deserves another chance and is the only one with a position in the polls; Luis Alfaro, the secretary-general of the party, whose long time leadership has allowed the party to survive and succeed; Lewis Perez, the man who operates the party machinery; and Antonio Ledezma, the mayor of Caracas, who runs third in the polls today with 6%.

Consensus is that if the AD members have their way, Fermin will be the candidate. Alfaro is seeking to maintain control through his strong hand on the internal governance of the party machinery and his exalted image. Perez has announced his candidacy. Though he operates the machine, he lacks broad party member support. The manner of selection of the candidate, in Alfaro’s hands, has not yet been announced and won’t be soon.

COPEI’s situation is dreadful. Its president, Luis Herrara Campins, does not like 1993 candidate Eduardo Fernandez, and has openly invited Irene Saez to lead the party. But Fernandez, a leader of COPEI for more than 20 years, is a clever and aggressive candidate who will not accept a non-member of the party to be its leader. That sentiment is widespread among the party faithful. He is the likely candidate, but he has been running for twenty years and is always the bridesmaid.

The only party whose nominee seems assured today is the MRB 200 – a movement, really, not a party yet – whose leader, Hugo Chavez, is a former member of the army forces and the leader of an attempted coup d’etat in the early 90’s. He has ties to Cuba and the Communist Party.

In each party and in broad alliances, there are many theories of what might happen and what is being attempted. It is plot time with no Italian prince.

Caldera is still a major player. His party, Convergencia, created for his candidacy in 1993, seems to be a non-factor as a party in 1998 speculation – although members of his government and party are being considered likely candidates. Caldera is a master politician and he is seen as one who might create some alliance on a candidate from the confusion which exists. Caldera counts. People say he controls from 800,000 to 1,000,000 votes. Among the options being discussed are:

Other major players include:

MAS – an established socialist party – perhaps supporting Teodoro Petkoff – although last week-end’s internal elections were bad for him and the unity of the party. It is likely to split and Petkoff is likely to leave it.

Causa R – a newer force, began as an idealistic group which has two potential candidates, Andres Velazquez or Pablo Medina. Velazquez ran a stong race in 1993 – finishing fourth. But the party is splitting and people believe Velazquez time has passed.

Enringue Salas Romner, a wealthy, former governor who has been seeking a party to support him. He is likely to be an independent candidate if he fails to become the COPEI candidate.

But this is not the end of the intrigue. Irene will likely be on the ballot – everybody agrees. And if she can garner 35% percent of the vote, she could win. She is charismatic and has plenty of financial support and seemingly good political advice. But she has no campaign or governance team and is considered weak on issues of national policy. She could also run (and win) for the Senate and get the experience she needs.

Former President Carlos Andres Perez, now released from prison, is still a factor. He will run for the Senate and win. Miguel Rodriguez, his former Planning Minister, fronts for him and could be a candidate, if CAP sees some merit to such a plan CAP could also support Fermin – if he runs outside of the AD party.

Then there is the Triple Alliance – the group of parties who gang up in the Congress to oppose AD dominance. These parties include COPEI, MAS and Causa R. Each has ideological roots, contrary to one another, but they may put principles behind them (as they have done in the Congress) and find a candidate to support – just to beat the AD candidate. Luis Giusti is mentioned as such a candidate, but he would more likely go only with COPEI or the Caudillos support.

The only thing sure about the 1998 election for President of Venezuela at this stage is that it will happen on December 6, 1998. The coming election will be different from all in the past. All of the electoral offices in Venezuela will be contested at once – from city councils, to mayors, to state legislatures, governors and the entire Congress will be on the ballot with the President. Everything is up for grabs.

Some afterthoughts:

Robert J. Keefe, Chairman – TKC International, Inc. – Washington, D. C.

Telephone: 202 638-7030 – Fax: 202 638-6784 – Email:rkeefe@tkci.com