January 15, 2009

Washington, D.C.

Political Update

 

      Tonight, George W. Bush will make his farewell address to the nation.  Having seen his recent news conference and read his musings about his term, we know what to expect – a defense of his time in office; a defense of his more controversial actions; pride in the fact that there has been no terrorist attack on the nation since 9/11; and a strong point to the future, where he will suggest that historians will treat his time more positively than the current crop of journalist do.

 

      For the past two years, I have had two items on my desk pointing to next Tuesday.  I have a countdown clock that has, for the past two+ years told me exactly how many months, days, hours and minutes until noon January 20, 2009.  It is sort of the modern, technical mechanism that beats the scratches on the prison wall that we see in cartoons of prison life.  It is now down to less than one week and it is counting very fast.

 

      Above the clock, there is a slip of paper pasted to the desktop that says simply, 10588.79.  That was the closing DJI number on January 19, 2001, the day before President Bush took office.  As I write, the Dow is at 8030.73 and sinking.  Somehow, I saw the drop in the market coming a long time ago.  I just could not believe that 43 would leave a more prosperous market than he inherited. 

Regardless of how he personally views his presidency, the American people are pretty united on their thoughts.  Twenty-two percent of people polled last week approved of his performance; 73 percent disapproved of his performance over the course of his two terms. That matches Mr. Bush’s job-approval rating for much of last fall, the lowest of his presidency.  The disapproval was non-partisan with Democrats, independents and even 34 percent of Republicans critical of Mr. Bush’s performance.

      His poor performance has hurt his party badly.  Just 23 percent of respondents in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, said they trust Republicans more than Democrats to handle the main problems facing the nation, the lowest level reached by either party in surveys dating back to 1982.           Mr. Bush’s most recent predecessors left office with approval ratings ranging from 68 percent, for both Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, to 44 percent, for Jimmy Carter. Mr. Bush’s father left with 54 percent.

      I am looking forward to our new administration.  It gives me hope and enthusiasm to see President-elect Barack Obama taking control of our destiny.  I won’t look back… I’m just plain tired of George W. Bush. 

 

Inaugural Glitter

 

      Washington is wrapped up tight… both from a security prospective and with great excitement as we look forward (five days, one hour, eight minutes and 32 seconds according to my count down clock) to the historic inauguration of our first African American President.  I have lived through a number of the inaugurals and never seen the sheer delight and exhilaration of so many people…from all walks of life.

 

      But the glitter and the glitz of the events are somewhat overwhelmed by the sheer numbers of people who will be participating and the crowd control and security provisions that are being made to make sure everything goes off correctly and safely.  A ticket to an office building (required) on the parade route (with an excellent view of the parade) has a notation on it that “Because the parade route will be limited to 300,000 observers, we suggest entering the security perimeter as early as possible.â€

 

      The pure numbers are significant.  There are 280,000 tickets for standing room on the West Front of the Capital for the ceremony… behind 20,000 seats.  From there the Mall spreads for twenty blocks and is expected to fill.  Jumbotrons will be sited along the Mall for the participants to get a real view of the proceedings.

 

      An early indication of the city’s ability to handle the traffic will come this week-end when the Obamas and the Bidens (VP-elect and family) arrive in the city by train from Philadelphia… re-enacting the historic journey of Abraham Lincoln.  The Mayor expects the crowd to be about the same as we have on the Fourth of July for the fireworks… about a half million.  We will see what happens.

 

      There is a security zone defined around the Capitol and the route of the parade that will exclude “non-official†vehicle traffic.  All bridges from Virginia will be closed to traffic.  Walking is seen as the transportation mode of the day by planners.  VIP visitors are likely to sit in their limousines (at up to $150 per hour) for hours at a time to get around to the various official and unofficial events.  An updated list of the social opportunities runs 22 pages on legal paper.

 

      The weather will be frigid.  It is anticipated that the temperature at noon when the new President takes his oath of office will be at just about the freezing point, or a degree or two below.  President Ronald Reagan was forced to move his second Inaugural ceremony into the Capital building because the mercury was at the zero mark that day.

 

      The observers will have to dress for warmth, not fashion.  Most of those who will observe the ceremonies in person from the Capital grounds or the Mall will spend about five hours out in the cold weather… standing, most of the time.  It will be a real sacrifice to be a part of this historic event.  But millions of us think the discomfort will be worth it.

 

People like what they see

 

      The polls are giving President-elect Barack Obama high marks for his transition work.  An average of ten national polls these past two weeks give him a 73.2% approval rating, against only 18.2% disapproving.   That spread of +55.0 is significant and unusual.  Most president-elect enjoy positive approval ratings in the months after their election, but Obama’s is the highest ever.

 

      His work has already begun and with some success.  He has begun work on restoring economic health of the nation and has had to lobby hard with the Congress to get the start he wants – even before he takes the oath of office.  And he was reminded this week that the politics is a big part of what happens here – regardless of who is president.

 

      The overwhelming concern of our President elect is the economy – restoring it to vibrancy and creating jobs to take up the slack being caused by the terrible business conditions.  He believes that there is urgency to act – urgency to get the banking system and credit markets corrected.  He believed that it was important this week to get the second half of the $700 Trillion TARP fund released and active.  Congress had released only half of the money when it first passed the legislation, and required that they be consulted before the second half could be disbursed.

 

      The American people are not at all convinced that throwing these trillions of dollars at the banks and credit providers is a good idea… they really do not like it and they are not sure that the Bush administration has made good choices in how they have spent the first $350 trillion.

 

      That fact made the vote on the release of the funds a hot potato for the Senate.  It passed 52-42, but it is interesting to note how it passed.  Nine Democratic Senators voted against the Obama position; six Republicans supported him.  Of the nine Democrats who voted “noâ€, five are up for election in the 2010 cycle.  Only one of the Republicans who voted with Obama is up next year.  Overall, two thirds of the 29 senators who are up for re-election voted in the negative. 

 

      We may not notice it, but the fact of life in the Congress is that there are just 655 days left until the next election.  The Members will not and cannot ever forget that.

     

The Other Book-End

 

      Sunday afternoon, the new first family will lead an event at the Lincoln Memorial to mark the opening of the Inaugural Festivities.  It will be a star-studded musical program with readings and speeches, including a message from Martin Luther King III.

 

      But besides celebrating the beginning of a new era, I see it as the other book-end of the Civil Rights movement.  There, on the very stage that Martin Luther King, Jr. “enslaved the audience†with his “I have a Dream†speech, Barack Obama will be feted for making one of Martin’s dream come true.

 

On August 28, 1963, some 250,000 people gathered for the for the last chapter of the March on Washington, which Martin Luther King Jr. called “the greatest demonstration for freedom in the history of our nation.”  It was an enormous crowd by the standards of the time and without question, the largest civil rights demonstration ever.  The City was tense.  No one knew how the demonstration would go.

 

      Washington was nervous, what with all of these demonstrators descending on the city.  The police and the military covered the city and kept traffic moving.  But there was not much traffic.  Many people stayed away from their jobs that day, fearing violence.   But it was the most peaceful march ever.  The leaders of the Civil Rights Movement and their allies monitored the situation very closely and made sure there were no disturbances.

 

      I went to work at the Senate Office Building that morning… but most of the staff was missing.  We heard reports of the massive crowd gathering and held our breathe.  By noon, it was apparent that all of the fears were misfounded and there was nothing to do but to join the throng in the march.  It was like a pleasant walk in the park… The crowd moved peacefully through the downtown area to the Memorial where for several hours, they were captivated by their power, engaged by the musical entertainment and the great speeches of that day.  

 

      It was the real beginning of the civil rights movement.  It had not been popular to support the leaders and it was not easy for them to attract popular attention. The success of that day spurred many to action.  It became OK to support civil rights in public.  Now, forty –six years later, we cap the victory of the movement with the inauguration of an African American President.  The event is so fitting – a perfect book-end.  I expect to be there again.

 

Meanwhile, In Iraq

 

      Lest we forget, Americans keep dying and keep being injured in Iraq and Afghanistan.   The official count as of January 15, 2009, of the dead in Iraq since our involvement began on March 23, 2003 is 4,227.  There have been 640 Americans killed in Afghanistan since that war was begun in 2001. The Department of Defense says that more than 46,000 American service personnel have been wounded in these two theaters

 

      We are told that the military planners have begun to work on the exit plans for American fighting forces from Iraq.  President-elect Obama says he plans to ask his top DOD team to met with him the day after his Inaugural to begin to develop such a plan… and the military is already preparing to accommodate their new Commander-in –Chief. 

 

      Unfortunately, as we see some welcome finality in Iraq, the problems in Afghanistan are increasing.  Again in this past period, the casualties in Afghanistan were greater than in Iraq.  The new commander in chief wants to send more troops there.  Military experts say that there is also great need there for other activity… expansion of aid programs and general support for the people.  It scares me.

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Robert J. Keefe

Principal – Meridian Strategies, LLC

1920 L Street, NW, Suite 410 – Washington, D. C. 20036

Telephone:  202 223-8839  – Cell:  20… – E mail: rkeefe@verizon.net

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