January 1, 2010

From the desk of Bob Keefe

Washington, D.C.

January 1, 2010

 

Political Update

 

            Happy New Year!  As I sat down to start this Update, I took a look back at the first issues of recent years.  There was a common thread of analysis of the previous twelve months.  They were not at all like we had thought they would be when they began.  You can say that about 2009 in spades.  We saw the election of President Barack Obama as the conclusion of divisive politics… the end of racial division and the advent of positive social change. 

 

            That did not happen.  We had a new President who determined to implement change.  His change meant major structural alterations that required ground breaking legislation.   The first target, the health care system, has consumed the legislative branch for the year.  Republicans have determined that cooperation with Obama is not in their interests and their boycott of anything Obama has destroyed whatever bipartisanship had existed in this city.  The hopes for accommodation and collegiality in government have been dashed, and we enter this second decade of the twenty first century as an angry mob of partisans. 

 

            Unfortunately, new presidents do not get a blank page to work from.  They inherit the circumstances left by their predecessor.  It is like a progressive party.  Obama did become heir to a package of issues and problems that were unique in their severity and importance.  The programs and actions he had dreamed of when he began his quest for the office in 2005 did not fit with the hand he had been dealt.  He was forced to tear up his things to do list and begin to act on problems he had never imagined.  It must have been discouraging to him.  But begin he did and he will forever be judged by how he adapted his governance to the new and difficult world that he found awaiting him.

 

Terrorism 2010

 

            It took a year, but finally, a real and present terrorism threat has challenged him.  The Christmas bomber on the flight from Amsterdam changed aviation security again.  We reacted to the smuggling of knives onto airplanes, then liquid bomb ingredients and now we have the problem of the plastic explosives sewn into a man’s underwear.  We will react again, probably with more body scanning.

 

            Over the past fortnight, I did more miles of travel than Santa Claus.  I was inspected and scanned in Washington, Los Angeles, Tokyo, Shanghai, Beijing and Tokyo again.  United States inspections were, clearly the most thorough, but all were serious and careful.  No where was I subjected to a complete pat down or body scan.  But I had bought a ticket by credit card, had luggage (overweight, at that) and was operating on a return itinerary.  I had not been to any funny places on my current passport.

 

            When I fly again, and it will likely be soon, what will be different?   I have my inspection routine down pat.  I put all of my metal things in my sport coat pocket.  My passport and boarding pass go in my shirt pocket.  My only problem is shoes.  I wear my walking shoes and they are usually helped on by a shoe horn, which is not available at the TSA inspection counter.  My carry on is usually re-checked because I have a lot of cords packed in it.  But I do not hold up the line.  I am a good guy to be behind. 

 

            I have resigned myself to being at the airport very early… I was at the Beijing airport at 5:30 am for an 8:00 am flight.  Maybe I will have to be earlier.  Whenever the TSA has changed its process, the lines have gotten longer.  But I can suffer this.. For safety.

 

            Meanwhile, I hope the President will crack some heads together between the various agencies that are supposed to be making  me safe.  As in most enterprises, good communication makes for a good outcome.  If our teams are not talking – and that seems to be the case in this latest  matter –then we are in trouble.  But count me in, I will keep flying.

 

Harry the Hero

 

            There is no doubt about it.  The “The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act†is the result of the laudable actions of Senator Harry Reid, the Majority Leader of the Senate from Searchlight, Nevada.  Harry prevailed against long odds.  His legislative skills and personal persuasion brought a majority of 60 Democrats to vote for the bill on Christmas Eve.  The Republican opposition had bet the table against him… and lost.  Every member of the Democratic caucus backed the measure; every Republican opposed it.

            The Senate passed a historic $871 billion health care reform bill Thursday morning, handing President Obama a Christmas Eve victory on his top domestic priority.  Should it become law, the measure would constitute the biggest expansion of federal health care guarantees since the enactment of Medicare and Medicaid more than four decades ago. It is expected to extend insurance coverage to 30 million additional Americans.

            Over the last months, Harry Reid was the face in the bulls eye.  He was the guy who had this impossible task of creating a piece of legislation that would satisfy sixty of the most persnickety people in America.  His chances of doing that were slim or none.  He had the impossible task.  He was required to deliver a daily report on his task.  The television reporters asked him every day how he was doing… and things did not change much from day to day… so he seemed to be failing…at least in the eyes of the beholders.         

            But, legislation, being like sausage, hard to watch being made, always looks bad, but Harry was still working the recipe.  He made it and I am happy for the Senator from Searchlight.  He has never gotten the respect he deserves.

            Senator Reid began his political career as the Lieutenant Governor of Nevada; ran for Senate but was defeated by Paul Laxalt; served as Chairman of the Nevada Gaming Commission; he was elected to Congress and finally succeeded to a Senate seat in 1987.  He succeeded Tom Daschle as the Democratic Leader in 2005.

            My most significant memory of a long relationship with the Senator was a time when the newly elected Prime Minister of Andorra visited Washington.  Andorra was considering adding gambling to its attractions and he came to the United States to watch his son sing in the Andorran Boys Choirs and to inspect American Casinos… I thought it was a good idea to introduce him to the former boss of the Gaming Commission of the top Gaming state, Harry Reid. 

 

            The meeting was a complete bust.  I forgot Harry is a Mormon and he spent a half hour lecturing my Andorran friend on the evils of gaming.  Harry is a man of principle…

 

For the Record – The Markets

            Let me quantify what you already know.  The stock markets have just completed a very dismal decade.  They actually collapsed twice in those ten years.  The Dow had the best performance.  It closed just 8.25 percent below where it ended 10 years ago, in 1999. The S.& P. index closed 23 percent below and the NASDAQ was hit hardest .  The bursting of the dot-com bubble pushed it down 44 percent over the decade.

            For most Americans, for most of the decade, there was no gain in their personal earning power.  It was a lost decade for both the rich and the poor. 

For the Record – The Political Polls

 

            Yes, it is an election year.  In ten short months the nation will go to the polls to select a new Congress, a third of the Senators, a majority of the state governors, and many, many other officials.  Though he will not be on the ballot this year, the election results will be seen as a report card on the Presidency of Barack Obama.

 

            Democrats cannot be happy about the trend lines that have developed since the Inauguration of Obama last January.  The answers voters are giving the pollsters on the critical questions are all troubling.

 

            Here are the results of what political experts consider the “state of the union questions:â€

           

            The President’s favorability rating:

                                                1/21/09                        7/12/09                        Now   

            Favorable                      63.0%                          51.7%                        50.1%

            Unfavorable                  19.0%                          37.8%                        44.5%

 

            The favorability rating of Congress:

                                                1/18/09                        6/15/09                        Now

            Favorable                      21.2%                          37.0%                        27.4%

            Unfavorable                  70.7%                          52.0%                        65.8

 

            The Direction of the country:

                                                1/20/09                        6/13/09                        Now

            Right Direction             69.3%                          45.8%                        35.9%

            Wrong Direction           23.1%                          45.0%                        56.7%

 

            Generic Congressional Vote:

                                                1/20/09                        6/13/09                        Now

            Democrat                      46.0%                          41.0%                        43.0%

            Republican                    22.0%                          39.2%                        44.3%

 

            Politicians are, by nature, optimists.  They see the glass half full.  But they are also realists.  The Democrats will be more cautious in these coming months.  The President must be prepared to accommodate to their concerns.

 

Meanwhile, our Wars Continue

 

             Lest we forget, Americans keep dying and keep being injured in Iraq and Afghanistan.   The official count as of October 31, 2009, of the dead since our involvement in Iraq began on March 23, 2003 is 4,372; the dead from the war in Afghanistan from its beginning in September 2001 is 948.  The count of American service personnel wounded in Iraq is now 31,557; in Afghanistan 4,434, according to the Department of Defense.

            For the first time in the long war in Afghanistan, the announced death toll includes seven CIA operatives.  Close to dusk, when some people on the base were finishing their daily work and relaxing or taking a break before dinner or before returning to their offices for the evening, a man dressed in an Afghan army uniform covering an explosive-laden suicide vest managed to elude security and reach an area near the base’s gym.  In addition to the seven agency employees who were killed in the attack, another six agency employees were injured.

            The Afghan man was being courted as an informant.   He had been invited onto the base for the first time and had not been searched.  A senior and experienced CIA debriefer came from Kabul for the meeting, suggesting that the purpose of the meeting was to gain intelligence.  The bomber set off the explosives as he was about to be searched.

            In this event, the number of CIA employees killed in Afghanistan was tripled. The CIA operatives were responsible for collecting information about militant networks in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and plotting missions to kill the networks’ top leaders. One of the victims was the base chief.  The loss of these specialists will impede its ability to collect valuable intelligence on Taliban and al-Qaida forces operating along Afghanistan’s eastern border with Pakistan.

 

            As the additional troops arrive and go to work, we can expect the casualties to mount up more quickly… more troops equal more casualties.  We saw that in Iraq and we will see it again in Afghanistan.  The death toll in 2008 was 155; in 2009 it is 318, more than double. 

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Robert J. Keefe

TKC International, Inc.

1776 I Street, NW, Suite 900 – Washington, D. C. 20006

Telephone: 202 255-8161 – E mail: rkeefe@tkci.com