The Breeders’ Cup is equivalent to Armageddon within the realm of the horseplayer, and the purpose of this year’s final battle is two fold. The 27th edition of the Breeders’ Cup will go a long way in determining whether or not we finish the 2010 horseracing season on a high note, but more importantly, the event serves as a last gasp bailout. For at the World Thoroughbred Championships, the despondent player is granted one final opportunity to erase the red ink off of their annual balance sheet.
Unlike the Triple Crown Series that spans five weeks and typically unfolds as a three-act drama with much of the same supporting cast, the Breeder’s Cup offers 14 separate and distinct battles where every entrant vies for an individual divisional championship.
The last two editions of the Breeders’ Cup were contested at the Santa Anita Racetrack in Arcadia, Calif., but this year the event comes back east to Louisville, Ky. From Nov. 5-6, Churchill Downs will host the World Thoroughbred Championships for a record seventh time. Next year, the Breeders’ Cup will stay put and is already slated to be run underneath the Twin Spires Nov. 4-5, 2011.
Some debate has surfaced on whether or not the same strip that is so closely associated with the Kentucky Derby should lay claim to the Breeders’ Cup so often. In fact, many fans would prefer to see the Breeders’ Cup cycle through every major racetrack in the country before returning to the same venue. Some have even pointed to the prospect of holding the event overseas or erecting a specific racecourse especially for it. The debate will rage on, but it is certainly clear to me that Churchill Downs is a more than fitting stage to conduct any equine theater on.
There is an old proverb that states, “Every war is won or lost before the first battle is ever fought.†If you handicap and wager on thoroughbreds, write this phrase on the top of every program you purchase for the remainder of your life. These words encapsulate the horseplayer’s plight, and anyone who lacks stealth in the preparation department can never hope to find lasting success within the “Sport of Kings.†As previously mentioned, six editions of the World Thoroughbred Championships have been contested underneath the Twin Spires, so keeping in line with our proverb, we will now rummage through the archives and attempt to discover any biases or tendencies that may exist between the Breeders’ Cup and Churchill Downs.
A player who delves into the Daily Racing Form’s two-day 2010 Breeders’ Cup program will discover 14 races that require handicapping. However, the first four times the World Thoroughbred Championships were held at Churchill Downs (1988, 1991, 1994 and 1998), only seven contests were held. The advent of the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf, which was inaugurated in 1999, brought both the 2000 and 2006 Breeders’ Cup race total to eight. Studying this sample unearthed a few interesting statistics I suggest you tuck into a cerebral fold, but a word to the wise — charting digits and coincidental trends will never replace sound handicapping principles and prudent wagering judgment.
The average win payout for a $2 mutual ticket on a Breeders’ Cup race held at Churchill Downs is $23.80. Before you mark an “X†through the morning line favorite, though, consider the following. Of the 44 Breeders’ Cup races contested in Louisville, the chalk has held up their end of the bargain 13 times. This boils down to a winning percentage of 29.5 percent for the public’s top choice, and most grizzled horseplayers know that only one-third of favorites find their way into the winner’s circle across America on a day-in and day-out basis anyway. Therefore, it is reasonably safe to say that one should not expect a large swing in variance with regard to the favorite vs. long-shot ratio in this year’s Breeders’ Cup.
Out of the six Breeders’ Cups held at Churchill Downs, the 1998 card ranks most frugal, returning an average win mutual of $10.60 per $2 ticket. As the millennium dawned two years later, that average spiked to $35.20 thanks in large part to a 55-1 shot named Spain. Trained by hall-of-fame conditioner D. Wayne Lukas, Spain rewarded those brave souls who backed her in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Distaff with a whopping win price of $113.80.
Spain’s win mutual ranks the highest out of all 44 Breeders’ Cup races held at Churchill Downs, while Flanders’ victory in the 1994 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies holds the low spot on the totem pole with a paltry return of $2.80. The average $2 win mutual for each of the remaining four Breeders’ Cups held at Churchill Downs are as follows: 1988, $11; 1991, $32.60; 1994, $26.80; 2006, $24.60. Combining these figures with the ones already mentioned in the two previous paragraphs leads me to believe that even though I should expect an average proportion of favorites to long-shots in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup, equines that go on to defeat the chalk should reward their supporters handsomely.
Saddlecloth numerology is often a point of interest for the horseplayer, for it may go a long way in determining if a racetrack surface holds a certain bias. Even though instances exist where a group of thoroughbreds do not break from the starting gate in sequential order of saddlecloth number due to a coupled entry residing within the field, these scarce instances don’t carry enough weight in our sample to skew the final results. With that said, I have discovered that the most powerful digit with regards to a Breeders’ Cup held at Churchill Downs is No. 1.
Out of the 44 Breeders’ Cup Races held at Churchill Downs, the No. 1 horse has 12 victories. This breaks down to a winning percentage of 27.2 percent with an average return of $14.60 for a $2 win bet. Now your first reaction may be speculative because, after all, there is a No. 1 horse entered into every race, whereas because of variances in field size, higher saddlecloth numbers like 10 through 14 might be omitted in certain divisional contests. Typically, though, every Breeders’ Cup race draws a high level of interest and, in the end, attracts a healthy amount of suitors.
To put this potency of No. 1 in perspective, consider that the Nos. 6 and 9 saddlecloths are tied for a distant second in total Churchill Downs Breeders’ Cup wins with five apiece. Before you back the No. 1 horse in all 14 races this year, let me caution you that this statistic is a bit misleading. It is true that if a patron wagered $2 on the nose of every No. 1 horse that ever ran in a Breeders’ Cup race contested at Churchill Downs, they would be ahead of the game — $88.80 to be exact. Incidentally, though, many victorious horses starting from the rail have returned short prices over the years. In fact, the No. 4 horse has only found the winners’ enclosure 7 percent of the time when the bluegrass state hosts the Breeders’ Cup, but a lifetime of $2 win betting loyalty to this saddlecloth number would have netted the gambler an overall profit of $136.60.
As telling as the percentage of horses wearing the No. 1 on their flanks that enter into the winner’s circle on Breeders’ Cup Day at Churchill Downs seems to be, the percentage of equines sporting the No. 1 who hit the board is simply staggering. The No. 1 horse has cracked the top three positions 19 times out of 44 races (43 percent) with an average show payoff of just over $5. In second position in this category is the No. 7 saddlecloth with 15 appearances (34 percent) on the tote board. Persistent show betting on the No. 1 horse over the last six Breeders’ Cups held at Churchill Downs would have only netted the player a profit of $10.30, so beware that this angle should be used in conjunction with exotic wagering in order to maximize its full potential.
The reader has probably realized that the figures from the last several stanzas have clumped both dirt and turf results from the six previous Churchill Downs Breeder’s Cups all together. I want to assure you, though, that the promise of rail runners on the lawn is consistent with those on the dirt. Of the 14 Breeders’ Cup turf races contested at Churchill Downs, the No. 1 saddlecloth has won four (29 percent) times, returning an average $2 win payout of $16.20. Saddlecloth No. 3 holds second position in this category with three wins (21 percent) but sports a much higher average win payout of $35.80. Interestingly enough, outside posts have won 36 percent of Churchill Downs Breeders’ Cup turf races with saddlecloth numbers 8, 9, 10, 11 and 14 each notching a lone victory.
So is there a rail bias underneath the Twin Spires on Breeders’ Cup Day? The black and white numbers seem to somewhat lean in that direction, but how do intelligent horseplayers like us take maximum advantage of the situation? Remember that a combination of factors from weather to the actions of the grounds crew can affect the condition and balance of any racing strip. Therefore I would strongly suggest that in the week leading up to the Breeders’ Cup, you keep an eye on the Churchill Downs results. If you discover a possible rail bias or any other partiality, then don’t hesitate to diligently act on it. If your bankroll permits, then wheel the runners most likely to take advantage of the surface conditions in exotics with the remainder of the field. For those who find themselves a little less liquid, simply wager across the board on proven runners who will also, by coincidence, find themselves reaping a bias benefit.
Top Breeders’ Cup Jockeys
Edgar Prado: The rider most known for his win on Barbaro in the 2006 Kentucky Derby captured the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Distaff aboard Round Pond and finished the day’s card with five top three finishes. Prado owns three overall Breeders’ Cup victories.
Corey Nakatani: This two-time Kentucky Oaks-winning jockey captured the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Sprint aboard Thor’s Echo and finished the day’s card with four top three finishes. Nakatani’s resume boasts seven overall Breeders’ Cup victories.
Frankie Dettori: This Italian riding sensation ranks first among international jockeys with nine overall Breeders’ Cup titles. The fan favorite who made the “flying dismount†famous recorded two of these wins over the Churchill Downs’ strip in 2006 aboard Ouija Board (Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf Champion) and Red Rocks (Breeders’ Cup Turf Champion). Dettori’s most significant moment on American soil was when he rode Raven’s Pass to victory 2008 Breeders’ Cup Classic.
John Velazquez: “Johnny V†won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies title with Caressing underneath the Twin Spires in 2000 and secured third place finishes six years later in both the Turf and Juvenile Fillies division. Velazquez boasts seven lifetime career Breeder’s Cup victories and has earned more than $10,000,000 in Breeders’ Cup purse money.
Garrett Gomez: The last time the Breeders’ Cup was held at Churchill Downs, Garrett Gomez was a bridesmaid on three occasions, but these second-place finishes are not indicative of his typical result at the World Thoroughbred Championships. The rider who many consider one of America’s finest is the proud owner of nine Breeders’ Cup victories.
Calvin Borel: The jockey who has ridden three out of the last four Kentucky Derby champions has only one career Breeders’ Cup victory (Street Sense 2006, Juvenile Division) but will undoubtedly be eagerly sought after by every trainer with an equine pointed to the World Thoroughbred Championships. Borel’s mastery of the Churchill oval is unsurpassed, but don’t back him with blind abandon. This rider’s mounts will automatically be bet down because of his reputation and may ultimately become undervalued in the mutual pools.
It is safe to say that a solid understanding of Breeders’ Cup history as it relates to Churchill Downs is now yours, but still the $64,000 question remains unanswered: How do we turn a profit within the 14-race progression of the 2010 Breeders’ Cup? I wish I could spell out a simplified arrangement of tactical equations that would guarantee you a profit, but this is impossible for one simple reason: Every horse entered in this year’s Breeders’ Cup has exceptional credentials.
If followed diligently, I promise the blueprint below will go a long way in helping you shape some pleasant memories of Breeders’ Cup.
Manage Your Bankroll
This will be the primary factor in determining whether or not the horseplayer endures a successful Breeders’ Cup, and with 14 races spread over two days, discipline becomes even more crucial than usual. Due to the magnetic pull the World Thoroughbred Championships has on a serious player, it is easy to become over zealous with the greenbacks on the first day’s six-race card. This poses no issue if the handicapper keeps his head above water, but immediately encountering a dry spell could pose long-term disaster.
Pick Your Spots
I am going to let you in on a cruel reality that pertains to the World Thoroughbred Championships, which I have discovered through many failed attempts to master it. When betting the Breeders’ Cup, you must, pick your spots! Sorry, you are not going to cash all 14 races, so don’t set yourself up for failure. In fact, my most successful Breeders’ Cup was in 2004 when I made just one large bet on a horse named Ghostzapper who proceeded to romp home in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Have fun, but show some self-control. Unless you feel relatively confident about the outcome of a race, only bet $2 on it.
Europeans Rule the Turf
Grass is typically the only surface European thoroughbreds run on, so competitors from overseas will have a decisive advantage when it comes to any Breeders’ Cup race contested over the turf. Dirt racing is an American thing, so when it comes time to hit the lawn, turn from nationalistic loyalty and side with ponies from across the pond.
Surface is Significant
This year, the Breeders’ Cup returns to a dirt surface after a two-year assignment over synthetic ground. Be weary of West Coast shippers coming into Churchill who have no prior races or workouts over conventional dirt, because there is no telling if they will fancy it when the gates open. Additionally, European horses typically prefer synthetic surfaces to dirt, so expect American-based runners to dominate the main track.
Play Some Horses with Long Odds
Every year, the Breeders’ Cup tote board explodes with lucrative payouts, so I encourage you to dedicate 5-10 percent of your bankroll to striking it rich. Play a few 50-1 shots, your lucky numbers or a combination of catchy names … it could change your life!
Finally, I want to encourage all of you to use this year’s Breeders’ Cup as a handicapping tutorial. The event gathers the most profound collection of horse flesh aimed at capturing championships from the sport’s wide expanse of divisions. This makes the Breeders’ Cup a wagering cornucopia where a horseplayer can test his wits against the most formidable of his brethren. Finding success in the World Thoroughbred Championships equates to passing the toughest exam horseracing can muster, so presently take inventory of your handicapping arsenal. Doing this will allow you to discover if you are indeed prepared to wage a triumphant war underneath the Twin Spires come Breeders’ Cup 2010.
_________________________________________________________________
By Eric Vaughn Floyd
Eric Vaughn Floyd is a turf writer for various gaming publications and consultant to several nationwide media outlets in regards to the Triple Crown. Excerpts of his gambling memoir, “The Backstretch (My First Decade Playing the Game),†can be viewed at LULU.com.