For all practical purposes, the 2009 book on thoroughbred racing closes each year when the last horse crosses underneath the wire in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The national spotlight does not shine on the “Sport of Kings†again until the next February when the Kentucky Derby Prep Races begin. This doesn’t mean the serious horseplayer has an extended furlough to do nothing except enhance their social-networking skills. History’s supreme runners share the common thread of a successful 2-year-old campaign. Therefore, if one dreams of being the first to spot the next Secretariat, they had better be on the alert from dusk until dawn.

I give fair warning that the predictability of 2-year-old thoroughbred racing in a best-case scenario rates as “murky.†In this genre of the game, horses who were nestled in their mama’s belly 24 months ago now suddenly find their resolve being tested in the final furlong of a grueling route of ground. A few prior races, some scattered workouts and the beast’s bloodlines will be the only tools at a handicapper’s disposal guiding the selection process. These contests usually better serve owners and trainers in gauging the raw talent in their barns than the player trying to fatten their bottom line. Even though I discourage a large investment on any equine sophomore, analysis of their deeds is where the savvy horseplayer gains an advantage on their peers.

Two-year-old racing reaches its summit in the Grade I-Juvenile Division at Breeders’ Cup World Thoroughbred Championships. The equine who emerges victorious from this mile-and-1/16th contest with a purse of $2 million instantly earns the label of “Early Kentucky Derby Favorite.†This title is actually a bit misleading, though, whereas over the last quarter century only Street Sense in 2007 has been able to turn the Juvenile/Derby double.

A triad of 2-year-old stakes races that lead up to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile further compile the list of applicants who seek immortality in the next calendar year. The Hopeful Stakes, Belmont Futurity Stakes and Champagne Stakes traditionally make a powerful argument toward who will be in the running to inherit the 3-year-old crown of thoroughbred racing.

The Three Chimneys Hopeful Stakes held at Saratoga Racecourse was inaugurated in 1904 and is the first Grade I race of the year for 2-year-olds. This past Labor Day, the seven-furlong Hopeful featured 12 entries and gave four-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer D. Wayne Lucas a dose of merited optimism for the 2010 racing season. His entry Dublin went to post as a lukewarm 3-1 favorite but rewarded his backers with a two-length victory. It seems the sky is the limit for this young superstar whose sire (Afleet Alex) captured the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes in 2005.

The Belmont Futurity Stakes came into existence in 1888 and has no shortage of nobility in the ranks of its past champions. Affirmed, who captured the last Triple Crown in 1978, along with Secretariat, Citation and Man O War all have a victory in the Belmont Futurity etched on their resume. In this year’s edition, the heavily favored D’ Funnybone scampered away to a 4¾-length victory and gave every indication that he will be a major player on next spring’s Triple Crown trail. Handling the conditioning of D’Funnybone is the brash trainer Rick Dutrow, who saddled Big Brown to a Kentucky Derby win in 2008.

Even though the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile offers more in the way of purse monies, there can be little argument that the Grade I Champagne Stakes held at Belmont Park ranks as the most historically significant 2-year-old race in the country. Triple Crown Champions Count Fleet and Seattle Slew, along with 10 other runners whose names litter the Horse Racing Hall of Fame, have popped the cork and toasted their success with a sip of this bubbly. The 1-mile race inaugurated in 1867 will be renewed on Oct. 10, and to this day remains an accurate barometer of two year old horseflesh. This year’s Kentucky Derby Champion Mine That Bird was sired by Birdstone, who was the 2003 Champagne Stakes Champion.

A factual parallel can be drawn between the chances of finding a future NFL quarterback at a high school varsity football game, and locating the next equine to wear the roses out of a 2-year-old stakes race. An infinite amount of factors can propel or detract a runner from the Triple Crown Trail, but know this: A mental note on a promising racehorse in early November could possibly lead to the biggest score of your life on the first Saturday in May!

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Eric Vaughn Floyd is a turf writer for various gaming publications and is a consultant to several nationwide media outlets in regards to the Triple Crown. Excerpts of his gambling memoir “The Backstretch (My First Decade Playing the Game)†can be viewed at LULU.com.

Posted November 4th, 2009 under Horseracing Tips, In this Issue, Winning Tips. Tags: horse tips handicapping juvenile horses, Horseracing Tips
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