The Detroit Tigers continue to scuffle, and the frustrations are starting to mount.

“I’m embarrassed. We all are,†said three-time manager of the year Jim Leyland.

Critics suggest that the Tigers’ AL-worst mark of 17-27 is a product of poor clubhouse chemistry, but Leyland won’t hear of it.

Still, there’s a problem here. A lineup of seven former All-Stars isn’t performing as expected. A pitching staff that was bolstered with the off-season acquisition of Dontrelle Willis ranks dead last in the American League in ERA and quality starts, putting added weight on a bullpen missing several key arms.

We wondered over a month ago if it was too early to panic. I think it’s safe now.

Let’s examine what’s gone wrong so far:

Now, the good news:

Fernando Perez, the Rays’ seventh round pick in 2004, is having some issues adjusting to his first season of Triple-A ball, but Saturday he showed flashes of what he’s capable of, finishing just a double shy of the cycle as the Durham Bulls earned their sixth win in eight games. The dinger was the first of the season for the 25-year-old outfielder, who put himself on the map last year with a breakout, although injury-shortened season at Double-A in which he experienced a power spike. He’s been inconsistent so far this year, and he’s definitely whiffing too much (at least one in five straight games), but Perez has a chance to carve out a career as an extra outfielder because of his speed and gap power.

Veteran Chris Richard is making a play to get back to the Show. He launched a pair of dingers Saturday, becoming the first Bull this season to produce a five-RBI day in the process, to continue a serious roll. The 33-year-old, who played four seasons in the bigs, last appearing there in 2003 with the Rockies, is coming off a fine Triple-A campaign in 2007. After a sluggish start this year, he’s taking it to the next level, going 15-for-30 on the Durham homestand with three dingers and ten RBI. Richard’s got some pop, but of course, so does the current first baseman in Tampa Bay. Still, Richard is proving that he could supply some power off a major league bench as an extra corner infielder/outfielder.

One vet who does not look ready to get back to the majors is Tomo Ohka. Currently toiling for the Charlotte Knights (the White Sox’s Triple-A affiliate), Ohka has been battered in three of his last four starts, dropping to 0-7, 6.12 for the year. In 50 IP, he’s given up 66 hits and 20 walks. Uh, yeah. As bad as Ohka was in his ten starts for the Jays last year, he’s been even worse in the minors. Of course, who knows what that means. Last season, Ohka was actually better in the majors than he was in the minors, and that’s not saying much. Frankly, it’s about time the 32-year-old chose another occupation.

The Rays may soon need to free up some space for outfielder Justin Ruggiano. After he put up a big year at Triple-A in 2007, showing a very nice power-speed combo, he made his major league debut. This year, he’s already earned a bit of PT in Tampa when B.J. Upton was hurting, but he has taken things to a whole new level down in the minors. The 26-year-old is 9-for-20 during his current five-game hit streak, scoring seven runs and driving in eight with a double and homer. For the year, Ruggiano is up to .360 with 20 RBI in 21 games and 75 at bats. This guy is ready for a crack at the majors.

As if Tampa didn’t have enough options, minor league veteran Jeremy Cummings is suddenly looking like he’s finally ready to take on the majors. The 31-year-old righty, originally a 21st round pick of the Cardinals way back in 1999, has been toiling at Triple-A for years. Now in his first season in the Rays organization, he’s 2-0, 1.64 through his first two starts, with just six hits allowed in 11 IP. On Saturday, pitching on just three days rest, he tossed an impressive five innings for the W. Could we have a Jim Morris, Part Two on our hands in Tampa Bay?

Remember Ben Hendrickson? The one-time Brewer pitching prospect who got battered in each of his big league trials is now in the Ray organization, and so far, it’s been a smart pickup by Tampa Bay. Hendrickson is still just 27, so who knows? The lightbulb may still come on for him at some point. He’s certainly getting the job done at Durham this year, notwithstanding some serious control issues. He’s almost always had some challenges with walks, but this year, it’s real bad. Still, how can you ignore a starter who is holding the opposition to a .175 BAA? That’s worth tracking, I’d say.

Should the Rays need some help in middle relief, it looks like Calvin Medlock is ready. A 39th round pick by Cincy in 2002, the 25-year-old righty came to the Rays last year in the Jorge Cantu deal, and it’s another smart move by Tampa Bay as this kid appears to have some upside. Through 11 appearances, he’s 1-1, 1.50 with just ten hits allowed in 18 IP. The control is a problem (ten walks), but believe it or not, it’s actually an improvement over his Triple-A debut last season.

Okay, so Grant Balfour didn’t win a job in the Rays’ pen. But he’s gone down to Triple-A Durham, grabbed the closer job, and run with it. On Saturday, pitching in a non-save situation, he gave up his first run of the season. The 30-year-old Aussie is 1-0, 0.49 with six saves and he’s been touched for just five hits in 18 1/3 IP while fanning 29. No, those aren’t Nintendo numbers. I have always been a big fan of Balfour, and while he flopped in the majors last year, these results warrant another shot for him.

May 19th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Minor Matters, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 1 Comment

As we approach the two month mark of the 2008 season, it is beginning to be serious decision time for those of us in keeper formats. When do we acknowledge that maybe, just maybe, the 2008 season is not going to be one filled with glory? Yes, it’s a tough decision, but also an essential one. When analyzing your team and looking forward, be conservative. Miracles do happen, but they are also few and far between. Realistic goals and projections are essential when developing a plan of attack for the balance of the season. If 2008 isn’t going to be your year, the sooner that you accept that and move forward, the sooner you can start the process of building that championship caliber team for 2009. Without further ado, let’s take a look at some of the potential waiver wire options heading into the long weekend.

Masahide Kobayashi, Cleveland, RP: Up until Saturday, it was starting to look like Kobayashi was on the verge of claiming the closer’s role for the Tribe, at least on a temporary basis. Coming off back-to-back saves, the former NPB star was brought back to earth with a bit of a thud when Adam Dunn smoked a three-run shot in the bottom of the ninth. With Rafael Betancourt having allowed 12 earned runs in his last eight appearances, it would appear that Kobayashi, even with the poor outing yesterday, should be the current frontrunner for saves until Joe Borowski returns from the DL. Manager Eric Wedge will be returning Borowski to the closer role upon his return from the DL, but the larger question would be for how long? If your fantasy team is lacking in the saves category, Kobayashi should be a decent gamble at this time.

Matt Joyce, Detroit, OF: Since his callup from Triple-A Toledo on May 5, the 23-year-old Joyce has been a very pleasant surprise for the Tigers. Coming off four home runs in the past seven days and with the ongoing injury woes of Gary Sheffield limiting him to the DH role, a window of opportunity has opened and Joyce seems to be fitting in rather well. He should be rostered in all AL-only leagues and definitely be on the radar in deep mixed formats.

Scott Downs, Toronto, RP: The combination of Jeremy Accardo hitting the DL and B.J. Ryan still not being ready to work on back-to-back days has created a very nice opportunity for Downs. With five saves already in the month of May, he’s certainly taken advantage of his current situation in the Jays’ pen. Until Ryan is ready to be the everyday closer, Downs should continue to have value in all formats.

Moises Alou, New York Mets, OF: The 41-year-old Alou, coming back from a hernia, is still the consummate professional hitter. Since his return at the beginning of May, Alou is hitting .343 in 35 at bats. Currently owned in only 31 per cent of CBS leagues, it would appear that Alou is still capable of being a solid option in both NL-only and mixed formats.

Jerry Hairston Jr., Cincinnati, 2B/3B/ SS/OF: What are the odds of virtually the same injury occurring to both of your shortstops? The incumbent, Alex Gonzalez, suffered a stress fracture early in Spring Training, only to be followed by virtually the identical injury happening two months later to Jeff Keppinger. Someone has to play shortstop for the Reds, and it looks like they’ve turned to the veteran Hairston Jr. in the interim. The multi-positional eligibility is a very nice bonus and if you’re looking for a temporary fix until probably the end of the month, you could do worse. With Hairston batting second for the Reds, he should guaranteed a decent number of runs scored and stolen bases for those looking at filling a weak position. Even on a short-term basis, Hairston Jr. should be an asset in NL-only formats.

Jesse Litsch, Toronto, SP: With his victory over the Twins this past week, Litsch has now moved to 5-1 with a decent 4.22 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. The 23-year-old righty has limited the opposition to only seven walks thus far — a huge factor in his early-season success. Litsch is a solid addition in AL-only leagues at this time.

Jay Bruce, Cincinnati, OF: The question at this stage would not be “if,” but “when” for the 21-year-old Bruce. He is currently batting .359 with nine homers and 35 RBI for the Triple-A Louisville Bats. At this time, Bruce should be owned in all keeper formats and on the radar in all mixed formats. When he does get the inevitable callup, you better either have him already rostered or own that all important first waiver priority or you won’t be seeing him in your lineup.

Bartolo Colon, Boston, SP: In his last start for Triple-A Pawtucket, Colon tossed six innings of one-hit ball with no walks. The combination of Clay Buchholz hitting the DL with a broken nail, and the fact that Colon has an opt-out clause in his contract if he is not called by the end of May makes the fat man a solid acquisition in AL-only and deeper mixed leagues.

Jake Westbrook, Cleveland, SP: It might be a bit early here, but Westbrook is not all that far away from returning to the rotation for the Tribe. Prior to suffering a strained left intercostal injury back in mid-April, he posted a very solid 2.73 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. A definite asset in both AL-only leagues and deep mixed formats, Westbrook needs to be on your radar heading into the Memorial Day weekend.

May 18th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, The Wire Troll, Tim McLeod . Author: Tim McLeod . Comments: 6 Comments

Carlos Villanueva, a pitcher many considered to be a sleeper heading into this season, has been a big time flop, notwithstanding a victory in his most recent start. In fairness, he’s been matched up against some tough competition, facing seven straight Opening Day starters. But that doesn’t explain away his dramatically reduced K rate, much more hittable stuff and propensity for coughing up the long ball. Despite much improved control, Villanueva’s ERA of 6.00 makes him a complete non-asset at this time. I’d watch him in NL-only leagues, because he’s certainly someone we’ve identified in the past as having great potential should he be given an extended look in the Milwaukee rotation. Well, he’s getting that look now, and so far, we don’t like the view.

Jonathan Sanchez has shown nice improvement this season, but he’s been hitting the skids his last couple of times out, giving up ten hits, ten runs, two homers and eight walks in just 8 2/3 innings. I like his upside, and the fact that he’s doing a better job of limited the homers this year, but you’ll need to sit him on your bench for now. For the less patient among you, it may be time to start exploring other options.

With Clay Buchholz landing on the DL, Boston opted not to bring up another starter – yet. J.D. Drew and Coco Crisp are both hurt, so a more immediate need was an outfielder, hence the summoning of Jonathan Van Emery to fill Buchholz’s roster spot. Boston had an off day Thursday, so Josh Beckett will be able to fill Buchholz’s scheduled start Sunday pitching on normal rest. But come next week, we may be ready to see Bartolo Colon. Judging by the one hit he allowed over six shutout innings for Triple-A Pawtucket on Thursday, I’d say Colon is ready to stake his claim on Buchholz’s rotation spot in Beantown.

Beckett, meanwhile, will be looking to rebound from the beating he took in B-More on Tuesday. He gave up 11 hits – the most surrendered by any Red Sox starter this year – and five runs in just 5 2/3 IP as he absorbed the loss. Beckett got slapped around in his first start off the DL, but then seemed to get into a groove. This month, however, he’s been inconsistent, throwing one middling game, one gem, and one stinker. Let’s see how he fares Sunday against Milwaukee, a team that has pounded him twice in the past three years.

Speaking of aces coming off rough outings, let’s see how Adam Wainwright bounces back Saturday after taking a serious beat down on Monday. He had been remarkable steady up to the point, so I doubt there’s much reason to think of that start as anything but an anomaly. With a 2.95 ERA and the fourth-best WHIP in the NL, Wainwright is in the early stages of a season that could culminate in Cy Young consideration.

Yet another starter who’s really been grooving this year, yet is coming off his worst start of the season is Florida’s Mark Hendrickson. He’s been receiving surprisingly little love this year, yet he’s been splendid, and has really revitalized his sagging career with the Marlins. If you’re seeking strikeouts, look elsewhere, but if you need wins, he can help. He’s already surpassed his total from last year, and this pace — especially with the Marlins rolling as they are — should easily topple his career high of 11 wins, set with the Rays back in 2005.

One starter who’s been rather consistent this season, but is likely frustrating his owners by his lack of wins is Aaron Harang. He’s quietly just gotten better and better as his career has progressed, but despite a solid effort this year (.240 BA with good control), he had just one win to show for his first eight starts. Perhaps the tides are turning for Harang. On Monday, despite not having his best stuff (he gave up a season-high three dingers), he earned the win as Cincy finally gave him some serious run support with eight tallies. That snaps a four-game losing skid.

After a rough start to the year, Roy Oswalt has settled down in a big way. In his last six starts, he’s gone 4-0, giving up just 33 hits and 16 earned runs in 41 IP while fanning 36 and walking 13. The homers allowed concern me, but on the promising side of things, Oswalt’s control has improved after slipping last year, and after three straight seasons of decline, his K/9 rate has risen back up. His ERA is still high (5.05) because of that early-season hole, but expect that to get back to the low 3s in short order.

It looks like Brad Penny is not going to be able to build on last season’s career year. After a decent April, the wheels have come off in May (10.34 ERA). His last two starts in particular have been ugly, with 19 hits and 15 runs allowed in 10 2/3 IP. Penny is still getting the wins, with five already, but his K/9 has dropped to the point where it’s unacceptable for a fantasy starter. That’s why we’ve seen him showing up on the wire in more shallow leagues. The fact that in recent years he’s been a much better first half pitcher makes me even more scared.

Jason Kendall is doing better this season, but I’d hardly call it a renaissance, so I’ll want to see more before recommending him as an option in anything but an NL-only league or as a backup in a deeper mixed league. A return to the NL has given him a lift, but he’s simply not the same player he was in Pittsburgh. And with his 34th birthday coming up next month and catchers generally fading offensively fairly early in their careers, I’m tempering my expectations that Kendall will ever again approach the lofty numbers he put up earlier in his career.

May 16th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Fantasy Notes, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 3 Comments

Ian Kennedy, who flamed out with the Yanks and was farmed out, is getting another chance. He’s been recalled to start Thursday afternoon against the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays (how weird is it to type that?). Kennedy didn’t waste any time getting his act together in Triple-A, tossing a superb 7 1/3 innings of one-hit, shutout ball with eight strikeouts and no walks in his first start. Monday, he started the first game of the doubleheader, but threw only one shutout frame before calling it a day, in anticipation of this start Thursday. The Yankees are scuffling, but aren’t in too big a hole yet. Salvaging a split against the Rays would be a good start, so there’s a lot of pressure on Kennedy. His control is obviously back, and assuming he has regained his confidence, hell play a very large part in whether or not this team is headed back to the postseason for a 14th consecutive season.

If Kennedy flops again, one name to keep an eye on is Steven White. The Yankees’ fourth rounder in 2003, White keeps improving his Triple-A numbers to the point where he’s sneaking onto the radar as someone who can help the big league team. Ranked by Baseball America as the fourth best prospect in the system in 2004, the 26-year-old slipped from the list the past few years, but his numbers this year are screaming out for attention. Smart owners will listen, as White has won his last three starts and is 4-1, 2.66 overall, with 35 Ks in 47 1/3 IP. I think he’s ready to at least get an audition, and given the holes in the Yanks’ rotation, that may be coming soon.

Another Yankee farmhand who is showing progress this season is outfielder Brett Gardner, the team’s third round pick in 2005. Gardner had an excellent season at Double-A last year, but found the adjustment to Triple-A somewhat challenging after a mid-season promotion. This year, despite some recent struggles, he’s picked up the pace, batting .285 through 36 games and 130 at bats. Gardner has displayed nice extra-base pop, good strike zone judgment, patience and speed. The highest drafted player in the history of the College of Charleston, the 24-year-old Gardner is someone with strong top-of-the-order skills who could carve out a major league career once opportunity comes knocking.

Andrew McCutchen, who we ranked 17th among our top 35 prospects heading into the season, is having some challenges at Triple-A recently, batting just .205 over the past ten games with 14 strikeouts. Let’s bear in mind that he’s still only 21, and overall, I like the progress he’s shown this year, both in terms of on-base skills (20 walks in 39 games after walking just four times in 17 games in his first taste of Triple-A last year) and power (ten doubles, six homers and 19 RBI). This guy’s got speed, developing power and can hit for average. Expect to see McCutchen rise into the top 10 prospects for 2008, assuming he isn’t in Pittsburgh long enough this year to lose his rookie eligibility. Right now, the Buccos don’t have any room for him with all three of their starting outfielders playing well. And with the Pirates actually hanging around .500 still, there’s no reason to start the youth movement quite yet. McCutchen is definitely a name to tuck away for the second half, however.

Remember Scott Strickland? The former Expo spent six seasons in the bigs, recording a 3.34 ERA through 236 games. But he hasn’t appeared in a major league game since 2005 with Houston. Now in the Yankees’ organization, this 32-year-old reliever is pitching pretty well so far in 2008, going 2-0 with a 4.19 ERA and over a strikeout per inning. He’s held righties to a .220 BAA, so perhaps he can still help a major league bullpen.

Still with the Yankees’ Triple-A bullpen, veteran minor leaguer Scott Patterson is starting to figure out this level after some early-season struggles. The 28-year-old righty was dominant at Double-A in 2007, recording a 1.09 ERA with 91 strikeouts and just 15 walks and 45 hits allowed in 74 1/3 IP, earning his first career Triple-A appearance along the way. Well, he started sluggishly this year, but is coming around with seven straight appearances without an earned run allowed, lowering his season mark to 3.00 through 16 games. He’s got good control and is striking out one per inning, so perhaps he’ll be considered as a possible injury replacement on the Yanks should it be necessary.

Billy Traber, who made the team out of Spring Training as the Yankees’ left-handed reliever, has struggled somewhat since his demotion back to Triple-A last month. He actually wasn’t awful in New York, but wasn’t exactly dominating southpaws, so the team felt no need to keep him around. Since his return to the minors, Traber’s numbers aren’t good (4.91 ERA), but his peripherals are strong (six hits and two walks with nine strikeouts in 7 1/3 IP). This 28-year-old could get another shot in the Yankee pen later this season.

Here’s another name to track in the bullpen of the Yanks’ top affiliate – David Robertson. The team’s 17th round pick in 2006 dominated at Double-A, earning a quick promotion to Triple-A. Since taking a beating in his debut, Robertson has settled down with three straight scoreless outings, even earning his first Triple-A win in his last appearance. He’ll need to sharpen his control to get a chance in the bigs, but considering this righty is just 23, let’s cut him some slack as he adjusts to the higher level.

Finally, Steven Jackson is also pitching very well in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre bullpen. Arizona’s tenth round pick in 2004, Jackson came to the Yankee organization in the Randy Johnson trade last year. He began the year at Double-A, but has since been promoted to Triple-A, and although his overall numbers the two levels aren’t eye popping (4.50 ERA through 14 games), his peripherals suggest he’s pitching much better than that, with just 24 hits and eight walks allowed while he’s fanned 28 in 28 IP. He even chalked up his first Triple-A save earlier this week after picking up one in Double-A.

May 15th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Minor Matters, RotoRob, Transactional analysis . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 8 Comments