Last week, the Rays inked the top pick in this year’s draft, shortstop Tim Beckham, to a $6.15 million deal. Signing the number one overall pick is usually a fairly drawn out affair, so I was quite surprised to see how quickly negotiations wrapped here. Beckham, who we profiled in our Draft Report, will start his professional odyssey at Rookie level Princeton of the Appalachian League. He reported to the team a few days ago, and will work out this week before being activated shortly. Needless to say, this is one to watch, as regardless of whether he remains at short, Beckham looks like a future .300 hitter who could one day crank 25 or more homers per season.

Cole Hamels tossed his fourth straight quality start on Sunday, and although he wasn’t dominant, he gave up just six hits in seven innings and didn’t walk anyone. As we discussed last week, the slump is over after that blip late last month, and I’m expecting big things from Hamels going forward, assuming continued good health.

Coco Crisp is looking like a decent pickup in AL-only leagues right now, but do be aware that he’ll be serving some kind of suspension very shortly. The appeal for the original seven-game suspension was heard on Monday, so stay tuned for a report. In the meantime, Crisp has been hitting quite well of late, especially power-wise, with a triple and a homer in his last five games. In June, he’s batting .304 with three homers and five steals, clearly his finest month of the season. With Jacoby Ellsbury struggling – especially in recent games – this is a situation worth watching. Speaking of Ellsbury, I’m not liking the way his season is trending. I don’t know if that wrist is still bugging him or what, but his rookie season is starting to prove a bit disappointing, the huge stolen base total notwithstanding.

James Shields continues to disappoint recently. His last three starts have included two total stinkers and a decent – but hardly solid – outing. His ERA for June is an unsightly 7.63. The Rays have been cautious with his pitch counts, so I don’t think that’s the problem here, even though he has tossed three complete games – more than anyone in the AL not named Roy Halladay. While Shields has been slightly easier to hit this season, he’s offset that by being stingier with the long ball. The upshot? Assuming he’s healthy, expect a big turnaround soon. His last start may have been the first sign of an impending roll.

One of the factors in the Crisp-Ellsbury situation is David Ortiz. With Big Papi out, Manny Ramirez is handling the DH duties, leaving left field for Ellsbury, while Crisp mans center. Once Papi returns, could we have a position battle on our hands? Ortiz won’t even pick up a bat for about another week though, so this isn’t something we need to worry about right away.

Sean Casey has cooled off somewhat, and now that he’s back to sporadic duty off the bench, he’s no longer much of a fantasy option. Still, how valuable has that .365 BA with gap power been off the Boston bench? Have you noticed that Casey is batting .429 in June, having already seen more action this month than all of May? His worst hitting month of the year was April, when he hit “only†.353.

Brandon Moss was called up again a couple of weeks ago, but he’s struggled badly, and will surely be farmed out as soon as Papi is ready. Moss was impressive in brief April and May trials, but clearly, he needs more Triple-A time before he’s ready to be an extra outfielder in the majors. And at the age of 24, he needs to play every day.

No one expected Jorge Posada to duplicate his brilliant 2007 – especially at the age of 36, but damn, even with just one healthy shoulder, he’s enjoying another big season. Posada needs labrum surgery after the season, but for now he’s playing through pain and doing so in impressive fashion, batting .325 in June, even though he’s only been able to catch three games in a row once since his injury. Not surprisingly, his power is down, but not dramatically so. Posada has quietly put together a truly inspiring career, but he’s always been overshadowed by superstar teammates. It’s time to consider him one of the Yankee all-time greats.

Tad Iguchi (shoulder) could be back in two weeks and change. Don’t be left snoozing when it comes time to pluck him off the wire. By the way, too bad prospect Matt Antonelli was scuffling so badly in Triple-A when Iguchi went down. It would have been nice to see him get his chance. On the plus side, Antonelli is turning things around, batting .289 with five ribbies in the past ten games. On the downside, that only lifts his season BA to .189. Ugh. It’s going to be a long year in San Diego. By the way, why isn’t Craig Stansberry getting more of a look at second base? Right now, it’s all about Edgar Gonzalez, who has grabbed the job and run with it. I’d suggest making a claim for him in NL-only leagues if you need middle infield assistance.

Speaking of the Padres, when do we start the Bud Black death watch? San Diego is 9-11 in June and — disturbingly — this is the finest month of the year for the team so far.

Bad news for J.R. Towles owners. Getting farmed out hasn’t been much of a wake-up call. He’s been only marginally better at Triple-A (.209) than he was in the majors (.145). And unfortunately, he’s headed in the wrong direction, currently mired in an 0-for-12 slump. Oh, the hopes we had here.

Chipper Jones (quad) is feeling better, but count him out against the Brewers. Expect to see him DH starting Friday against the Jays. By the way, we were remiss in not congratulating Jones on reaching 400 career dingers earlier this month. Here’s a parade of some of Chipper’s victims: Josias Manzanill (first career), Kevin Tapani (No. 100), Darryl Kile (No. 200) and Sterling Hitchcock (No. 300). The 400th, by the way, came against the Marlins’ Ricky Nolasco. Other factoids: Chipper is just the third player who has played at least 75 per cent of his games at third base to reach 400 career homers. The first two are Mike Schmidt and Eddie Matthews. He’s also the third switch hitter to swat 400, following Mickey Mantle and Eddie Murray. Can we safely call Jones an all-time great now?

June 24th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Fantasy Notes, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 2 Comments

Face it. You got a little panicky at the end of May when Cole Hamels put up back-to-back stinkers. Well, he sure has bounced back brilliantly in June. After his seven strong innings Monday against the powerful BoSox, Hamels is now 2-0 through three starts this month, with just 13 hits, four runs and six walks allowed in 24 IP while fanning 22. I’d say he’s back, baby. If he continues to stay healthy this year, Hamels will challenge for the Cy Young.

What’s up with Chase Utley? He’s taken an 0-for-20 in going hitless in his last five games. What a stiff! Actually, believe it or not, he’s batting under .260 since the end of April, but with his 11 dingers and 39 RBI over this stretch, you’re probably not complaining too vociferously.

Jimmy Rollins got off to a crappy start this month, but he’s picked up the pace in the past few games, batting .345 in the last week. Obviously, his DL stint is a big factor here, but J-Roll won’t come close to duplicating the career-high 94 ribbies he put up last year.

Okay, he’s still not performing anywhere near his 2006 MVP pace, or even 2007, but Ryan Howard has definitely continued to dig his way out of an early-season hole. He’s batting .300 in the past week with four dingers and 13 RBI – much more RyHo-like than what we saw earlier this year. Still, it’s going to take a serious run for Howard to avoid the worst season of his career.

Despite Howard’s struggles, the Phils continue to boast the best offense in the NL, pacing the Senior Circuit in both runs and slugging percentage.

The continuation of Pat Burrell’s career year is sure helping in this department. He’s already launched five long bombs in June to go along with a sizzling 1155 OPS.

Shane Victorino, on the other hand, is cooling off after a big May. He’s batting just .250 with two steals this month after swiping 11 bags and maintaining a .322 BA last month.

Carlos Ruiz has been solid behind the plate, but has failed to build on his big rookie season from an offensive standpoint. A .230 BA with just 20 runs and 20 RBI has rendered Ruiz an afterthought in all but the deepest of NL-only leagues. Even though he’s playing less (for now — I’d watch this one), I’d prefer to own back-up catcher Chris Coste.

It might be time to take another gander at crafty old veteran Jamie Moyer, at least in NL-only leagues. He had won five straight decisions until Tuesday, when again he pitched well enough to win (five innings, four hits, two runs), but came away on the short end of the stick. Over his last three starts, the 45-year-old lefty has only given up 11 hits and four runs in 18 1/3 IP. He’s walked nine, which is a concern, but has generally pitched around them thanks to his nice groundball rate. If you need Ws, Moyer can help without killing your ERA or WHIP, so he’s especially attractive in 4×4 leagues.

Another Phillie starter that deserves a second look is Kyle Kendrick. The sophomore struggled out of the gates, but has gotten steadily better as the season has waned. He falls directly into the same category as Moyer – he’ll give you Ws, but no Ks – however, Kendrick has upside potential at his age. Moyer? Uh, I’m pretty sure we’ve seen everything he’s going to throw at us by this point.

Still with the Phils’ rotation, Adam Eaton could be a decent short-term gamble in NL-only leagues. He’s 1-1, 3.26 in June and he’s actually looked quite serviceable his last five times out. Eaton has stayed healthy enough to finally log some innings, and he’s really improved his home run rate. Take a peak; you could do worse.

Brett Myers, unfortunately, has proved to be the weak link in the Phils’ rotation, and he keeps getting dropped as a result. While he looked unhittable in his first start of June (despite some serious control issues), Myers has been bitch-slapped since, which – when you think about it – is actually rather appropriate. Home runs allowed are really hurting him, and the fact that the Phils have surged to first in the East despite Myers’ woes is a real testament to the rest of the staff (and the O, of course). At this point, I’d sit Myers down and hope for better results. You probably can’t dump him. Can you?

It’s time for more kudos to Brad Lidge. We all slammed him (myself included) heading into the season, assuming he’d crumble in the pressure cooker that is Philly. Well, we’re in mid-June and the dude has a 0.90 ERA and is perfect in save chances. ‘Nuff said. Sorry I slagged you, man.

Owners in NL-only leagues that track holds would be wise to pick up J.C. Romero. He’s rhymed off six straight scoreless outings and has – surprisingly – really built on his fine 2007 season.

While we’re at it, how about some love for Chad Durbin? He’s upped his K rate, improved his command and has been lights out. Deep NL-only leaguers take note.

Ryan Madson has improved his control and is whiffing more batters this year, but is not getting any love. Since a sub par April, he’s been lights out, so he’s another reliever worth examining in NL-only leagues.

Time to throw a pity party for the Braves. John Smoltz is toast for the year; who the hell knows when Mike Hampton will pitch (although, he’s teasing us again right now); Tom Glavine is done until the All-Star break; Rafael Soriano has pitched just nine times this year (although he’s almost ready to come back, too); and Mark Kotsay’s back has forced him to the DL as well (but, again, he could be back shortly).

June 18th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Fantasy Notes, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 3 Comments

In the boxscore it looks pretty impressive: a perfect inning to save the Yankees’ 2-1 in Houston Friday night. But Kyle Farnsworth – only taking the final inning because Manager Joe Girardi was giving regular closer Mariano Rivera a much needed day off – earned his first save of the season in a rather lucky manner. He got the lead-off hitter in an 0-2 hole and then managed to allow the count to run full before hitting him with a pitch. A horrible bunt attempt resulted in a pop-up out, and then Ty Wigginton, on first with the HBP, stupidly tried to steal second, resulting in out number two. One whiff of Geoff Blum later and it was game over. Newsflash: even a blind squirrel can find a nut from time to time. Farnsworth remains useless in all but the very deepest of AL-only leagues.

Speaking of Mo, he had pitched in four straight games, so thank goodness Girardi was smart enough to give him a pass Friday. Rivera has shown himself to be human of late, getting scored upon in two of his past five outings. Regardless of the recent cracks in his armour, Rivera is enjoying a career year at the age of 38, which is really saying something considering how brilliant a career he’s had. If you enjoy having your mind blown, take a peek at his strikeout-to-walk ratio.

In his third start since moving into the rotation, Joba Chamberlain tossed a quality start, scattering just six hits and a run in six innings of work. Now up to a 95-pitch limit as his arm gets stretched out, Chamberlain struggled with his command for the second time in three tries, but on Friday it didn’t wind up hurting him. So far, he’s enjoyed a very impressive 2.84 ERA as a starter, but the peripherals don’t support such a low ERA. Just a word of warning to his owners here; watch those walks.

Shawn Chacon, who has largely been ignored as a fantasy commodity despite a strong start to the season, bounced back from two rough outings with an excellent start on Friday night. Okay, Chacon’s giving up too many homers, and his command has slipped, but surely you could do worse in a fair-sized NL-only league. Like I said, he’s trending down since a fine April, but perhaps last night’s solid outing against a very strong offense was the sign of a turnaround. I’d watch his next outing closely and get ready to put in a claim if it meets with your approval.

Could Yankee reliever Jose Veras move into a more prominent role in the New York pen? He’s tossed five straight scoreless outings, giving up just two hits and three walks in seven innings while fanning eight. It’s a small sample size, but if Veras continues to pitch with the excellent control he’s shown this season, he has a very good chance to work himself into a more responsible set-up role. If you tracks holds, I’d put this dude on your watch list.

Derek Jeter continues to scuffle through the worst season of his fantastic career, but believe it or not, his .280 BA for June represents his best mark of the season so far. He’s finally starting to show some pop, too, jacking his second blast of the month Friday, giving him four for the year. But unless Jeter picks up the pace and starts getting on base at his more customary clips, he may miss out on 100 runs for just the second time in 13 years.

Ty Wigginton is expected to see less PT at third in Houston, which is a shame because he’s actually played well lately (.310 in June). Thanks to his gap power, Wigginton is a solid NL-only asset, but if his at bats are reduced, I’d dump him pronto. Blum is supposed to start seeing more action, but so far, Wigginton has started every game since Manager Cecil Cooper suggested he wanted to get Blum in there more often. So keep an eye on this, but don’t make a move yet.

Michael Bourn is starting to pay dividends for his owners. Sure, the steals have been great, but those of you who were forced to suck up his .195 April and .214 May just to avail of those swipes can finally smile now. Bourn is batting .364 in June, lifting his season average to a less unsightly .230. Looking to buy low for some steals? I’d get on that now, because Bourn’s value is about to explode.

One struggling player who is still not turning it around is Robinson Cano, currently on an 0-for-15 skid. Cano appeared to be getting his act together last month, batting .295 after an embarrassingly ugly April. But whatever progress he made last month seems to have disappeared. For a guy many people (myself included) expect to bag a batting title or three before all is said and done, Cano has been an awful disappointment so far this year. It’s been so bad that in very shallow leagues, he’s even winding up on some waiver wires.

So, as discussed above, Blum is supposed to start seeing more action at third for the ‘Stros. Well, he’s only had one at bat in each of the past two games, and despite some solid play the past two months in limited action, I am not really sure he deserves more PT. Just how much freaking action can you give to a dude who is swinging a .167 bat against righties? I’d dismiss this report as idle talk and ignore Blum until he gives you reason not to.

June 14th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Fantasy Notes, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 1 Comment

Carlos Villanueva, a pitcher many considered to be a sleeper heading into this season, has been a big time flop, notwithstanding a victory in his most recent start. In fairness, he’s been matched up against some tough competition, facing seven straight Opening Day starters. But that doesn’t explain away his dramatically reduced K rate, much more hittable stuff and propensity for coughing up the long ball. Despite much improved control, Villanueva’s ERA of 6.00 makes him a complete non-asset at this time. I’d watch him in NL-only leagues, because he’s certainly someone we’ve identified in the past as having great potential should he be given an extended look in the Milwaukee rotation. Well, he’s getting that look now, and so far, we don’t like the view.

Jonathan Sanchez has shown nice improvement this season, but he’s been hitting the skids his last couple of times out, giving up ten hits, ten runs, two homers and eight walks in just 8 2/3 innings. I like his upside, and the fact that he’s doing a better job of limited the homers this year, but you’ll need to sit him on your bench for now. For the less patient among you, it may be time to start exploring other options.

With Clay Buchholz landing on the DL, Boston opted not to bring up another starter – yet. J.D. Drew and Coco Crisp are both hurt, so a more immediate need was an outfielder, hence the summoning of Jonathan Van Emery to fill Buchholz’s roster spot. Boston had an off day Thursday, so Josh Beckett will be able to fill Buchholz’s scheduled start Sunday pitching on normal rest. But come next week, we may be ready to see Bartolo Colon. Judging by the one hit he allowed over six shutout innings for Triple-A Pawtucket on Thursday, I’d say Colon is ready to stake his claim on Buchholz’s rotation spot in Beantown.

Beckett, meanwhile, will be looking to rebound from the beating he took in B-More on Tuesday. He gave up 11 hits – the most surrendered by any Red Sox starter this year – and five runs in just 5 2/3 IP as he absorbed the loss. Beckett got slapped around in his first start off the DL, but then seemed to get into a groove. This month, however, he’s been inconsistent, throwing one middling game, one gem, and one stinker. Let’s see how he fares Sunday against Milwaukee, a team that has pounded him twice in the past three years.

Speaking of aces coming off rough outings, let’s see how Adam Wainwright bounces back Saturday after taking a serious beat down on Monday. He had been remarkable steady up to the point, so I doubt there’s much reason to think of that start as anything but an anomaly. With a 2.95 ERA and the fourth-best WHIP in the NL, Wainwright is in the early stages of a season that could culminate in Cy Young consideration.

Yet another starter who’s really been grooving this year, yet is coming off his worst start of the season is Florida’s Mark Hendrickson. He’s been receiving surprisingly little love this year, yet he’s been splendid, and has really revitalized his sagging career with the Marlins. If you’re seeking strikeouts, look elsewhere, but if you need wins, he can help. He’s already surpassed his total from last year, and this pace — especially with the Marlins rolling as they are — should easily topple his career high of 11 wins, set with the Rays back in 2005.

One starter who’s been rather consistent this season, but is likely frustrating his owners by his lack of wins is Aaron Harang. He’s quietly just gotten better and better as his career has progressed, but despite a solid effort this year (.240 BA with good control), he had just one win to show for his first eight starts. Perhaps the tides are turning for Harang. On Monday, despite not having his best stuff (he gave up a season-high three dingers), he earned the win as Cincy finally gave him some serious run support with eight tallies. That snaps a four-game losing skid.

After a rough start to the year, Roy Oswalt has settled down in a big way. In his last six starts, he’s gone 4-0, giving up just 33 hits and 16 earned runs in 41 IP while fanning 36 and walking 13. The homers allowed concern me, but on the promising side of things, Oswalt’s control has improved after slipping last year, and after three straight seasons of decline, his K/9 rate has risen back up. His ERA is still high (5.05) because of that early-season hole, but expect that to get back to the low 3s in short order.

It looks like Brad Penny is not going to be able to build on last season’s career year. After a decent April, the wheels have come off in May (10.34 ERA). His last two starts in particular have been ugly, with 19 hits and 15 runs allowed in 10 2/3 IP. Penny is still getting the wins, with five already, but his K/9 has dropped to the point where it’s unacceptable for a fantasy starter. That’s why we’ve seen him showing up on the wire in more shallow leagues. The fact that in recent years he’s been a much better first half pitcher makes me even more scared.

Jason Kendall is doing better this season, but I’d hardly call it a renaissance, so I’ll want to see more before recommending him as an option in anything but an NL-only league or as a backup in a deeper mixed league. A return to the NL has given him a lift, but he’s simply not the same player he was in Pittsburgh. And with his 34th birthday coming up next month and catchers generally fading offensively fairly early in their careers, I’m tempering my expectations that Kendall will ever again approach the lofty numbers he put up earlier in his career.

May 16th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Fantasy Notes, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 3 Comments

We’re going to bounce all over the map today, discussing some minor leaguers, some major leaguers, some Indy players and even some international players.

Nevin Ashley, the Rays’ sixth rounder in 2006, is struggling to adjust to High-A ball this season. The former First Team All-Missouri Valley Conference catcher is just 5-for-33 in his last ten games, and his OPS is a putrid 501 through 29 games. The 23-year-old enjoyed a productive season at A-ball in 2007, earning a spot on the mid-season South Atlantic League All-Star team, but his offensive progress has really stalled.

The Rays had to be breathing a big sigh of relief on Saturday when Scott Kazmir tossed six shutout frames at the Halos. Coming off an ugly season debut after starting the year on the DL, Kazmir was very sharp this weekend, limiting the Angels to just three hits and three walks, while fanning five. Next up, he’ll face the Yankees in Tampa Bay on Thursday, and with New York’s offense looking middling at best so far, Kazmir should definitely be activated. Recall that we rated the Ray ace as a top 15 pitcher prior to the season.

Back to the minors, I like what I’m seeing out of White Sox 2006 sixth round pick Brian Omogrosso at Double-A so far. The 24-year-old righty recovered nicely Friday, tossing three shutout frames after taking a beating in his first start of the month. He was injured earlier this season, so is still being babied with short outings and, through five starts, Omogrosso has been very tough on lefties (1.50 ERA), but I’m concerned about his command so far. A full-time starter in 2008 after being used as a swingman in High-A last season, Omogrosso will need to sharpen his command before he starts getting noticed as a legitimate prospect.

Third baseman Ronnie Prettyman, the Mariners’ tenth round pick in 2005, is struggling mightily at Double-A this season. While he had some injury issues last year, he earned a rapid promotion to Triple-A, and performed quite well. This season, however, Prettyman is back at Double-A, and not looking anywhere near ready to get back to Triple-A. He’s currently mired in a 1-for-14 skid and is batting just .205 over the past ten games. Overall, Prettyman is batting just .209 through 31 games and 110 at bats. He has scored 20 runs, but his 605 OPS is not going to cut the mustard. Already 26, Prettyman will need to turn his season around quickly or very soon will be written off as a future major league prospect.

It looks like the end of the line for former Diamondback farmhand Aric Leclaire. The 30-year-old southpaw, taken by Arizona in the 19th round in 2000, was released last month by the Camden Riversharks of the Independent Atlantic League. He hasn’t pitched in organized ball since 2004, so stick a fork in him.

If you’re seeking relief help in an NL-only league, take a peek at Mitch Stetter of the Brew Crew. The 27-year-old lefty had a control meltdown in his last outing, but with 15 Ks in just 11 1/3 IP, he’s got my attention, especially considering he’s the only southpaw in the Milwaukee bullpen.

In other NL bullpen news, reliever Joe Thatcher, hit hard in his last outing as his ERA rose to 6.75, has been farmed out by the Padres to make room for Bryan Corey, just acquired from the BoSox. Corey hasn’t pitched well this year, struggling with his command in limited action, but I’ve always liked his arm and wondered how he’d do if he could just get an extended look. Hopefully, a return to the NL and a pitching friendly park will be the tonic Corey needs to get going. Watch him.

Clint Barmes, who we highlighted in The Wire Troll last month, is still available on many wires, but you better move quick as he’s getting snapped up. He’s riding a six-game hit streak heading into action Tuesday and Barmes has really revitalized his career after bottoming out last season. I’d like to see him score more runs, but perhaps if he maintains that .330 BA and nice gap power, he’ll move up in the batting order over the struggling Yorvit Torrealba.

Remember Alex Graman? The Yankees’ third round pick in 1999 appeared in only five games for New York before winding up in Japan. He’s become a solid NPB closer, making me wonder if the 30-year-old lefty will generate any interest back home.

May 13th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Fantasy Notes, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 6 Comments