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Ice Chips: The End Is Near


With a pair like that waiting for you at home, small wonder Dion Phaneuf was on fire in the playoffs.

Some time in the next seven days, the Stanley Cup will be awarded. In fantasy terms, that means that there’s nothing else to really consider except for a quick review of the past. This week, let’s take a look at some of the playoff’s best – and worst — performers.

Chris Osgood: When you’re a goalie who wins all the time and blocks almost every shot, well, that’s a pretty darn valuable fantasy player. If you’re looking a little more analytically, you could say that Osgood’s great stats are a result of his strong defense (look at Detroit’s shots against) and his team’s puck-possession style. Well, time controlling the puck doesn’t count for squat in fantasy, but wins do. Kudos, Osgood—you’ve been so good that even Dominik Hasek probably has you in his fantasy pool.

Sidney Crosby: You know, it’s getting to a point where there isn’t too much to doubt about Sid the Kid anymore. Maybe he secretly gets his frustrations out by punching kittens or licking poisonous toads, but on the ice, he’s stepped up to every challenge. It took a few weeks for him to fully mesh with Marian Hossa, but once Hossa realized that playing with Crosby is different from any centre in the Atlanta Thrasher lineup, he started piling up many more points. Nice job, Sid—now let’s see if you can pull another rabbit out of the hat and lead a comeback.

Johan Franzen: A goal-per-game—that’s a pretty good clip to go on. Had he not had to deal with concussion symptoms, who knows where Franzen would rank in the overall playoff scoring race. As it stands, Franzen will have to be satisfied with leading the league in goals despite having played less games than a bunch of other players.

Marc-Andre Fleury: Remember when Ty Conklin was a god in Pittsburgh for a few months? Well, not anymore. The Flower’s stellar play complimented the Penguin young guns and bailed them out when Pittsburgh faced waves of overwhelming chances (see: Game One and Game Two of the Detroit series).

Evgeni Malkin: It’s hard to rag on a guy who was a potential Hart Trophy winner, but the dynamic Malkin from the first two rounds is completely different from the on-again-off-again Malkin of the last two rounds. His point totals are still pretty darn good, but it’s frustrating because you know Malkin can be better.

Mike Ribiero: It’s a little unfair to simply grab players from the final two teams. If you drafted Ribiero, you were probably able to get him with a mid-round pick. He actually out-Joe Thorntoned the real Joe Thornton with a number of impeccable passes and great plays. Yup, the Stars are out, but Ribiero made fantasy owners very happy with his high-flying skills.

Jaromir Jagr: Apparently, Jagr does have a pulse after all. Who would have known after a middling regular season? Jagr’s points-per-game are among the best in the postseason, and he pretty much did everything humanly possible to get the Rangers farther in the playoffs.

Dion Phaneuf: Maybe girlfriend Elisha Cuthbert offered something extra special to Phaneuf for every shot that he took. It sure seemed that way, since Phaneuf was a monster with the puck from the blueline. His rockets from the point created a ton of Calgary offense; it’s just too bad that Phaneuf and Jarome Iginla can’t carry an entire team on their backs.

Andrei Markov: Markov was one of the league’s most consistent point-producing defensemen, but somehow, the vaunted Montreal power play failed the Habs in the playoffs. One of the reasons is the disappointing play of Markov. With him managing just four points in 12 games (two on the power play), East-leading Montreal struggled way more than it should have against a much weaker Boston Bruins squad, then forgot to show up for large stretches of the Philadelphia series.

R.J. Umberger: Daniel Briere and Mike Richards got most of the press, but Umberger’s knack for big goals stood out, so much so that he’s only a few behind a handful of guys who happen to still be battling for Lord Stanley.

Milan Michalek: Um, wasn’t Michalek supposed to be one of those great young players that carried San Jose past the second round? In theory, yes, but four points in 13 games isn’t going to quite cut it.

Chris Drury: The New York Rangers signed Drury to a monster contract based on his reputation for being a clutch performer. Three goals in ten games…well, that’s not very clutch. Three goals in ten games for about $7 million per season? Well, that’s probably worth an expletive or two from the Blueshirt faithful.

 

Ice Chips: And Then There Were Two…

A lot of times, and across sports, fans are often left with the feeling that a league wants certain teams in the playoffs because of the size of the market, not the quality of the team. There have always been vague rumblings about the NHL doing what it can to keep the New York Rangers competitive, since they represent a huge market. And you always hear how the league (and television networks) felt burned by the 2004 Tampa-Calgary Finals and 2006’s small-market Carolina-Edmonton matchup.

But now, everyone is talking about how happy the league is with Detroit-Pittsburgh, two superstar teams from decent-size markets. The thing is, this is one of those times where what’s good for the NHL is also good for the fans, because this is a pretty amazing matchup of speed and talent and yes, even defense. A Red Wings-Penguins series is good for the NHL from a marketing perspective, but it’ll also be good from a product perspective.

This series is two exciting teams showing the world why people love hockey so much. Not sure what to expect? Don’t worry. We’ve got you covered:

Goaltending

Detroit’s Chris Osgood had a strong season sharing number one duties with Dominik Hasek. Hasek got the nod to start the playoffs, but he couldn’t finish. His erratic play got him pulled right in the middle of the first round against Nashville. Osgood grabbed the starting job and never let go, putting up a 1.60 goals against and .931 save percentage in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh’s Marc-Andre Fleury missed almost half of the season with a high-ankle sprain and while he was gone, backup Ty Conklin, last seen imploding in Edmonton, did an excellent job as the number one goalie. But Fleury won the job back cleanly, and has been solid, if a bit scrambly, in the playoffs. He’s got a 1.70 goals against and .938 save percentage. The only thing he doesn’t have is Osgood’s Cup-winning experience, and that’s got to count for something.

Defense

Detroit features one of the NHL’s best defenseman in Nicklas Lidstrom. Enough said. Wait. You need more? How about the underrated Brian Rafalski, who is also an excellent puck mover, and who is the recipient of many nice opportunities when forwards try to charge the offense-minded Lidstrom. And don’t forget about Niklas Kronvall, who has the most points by a defenseman in the playoffs, and who has more assists than anyone on the Penguins but Sidney Crosby.

That’s not to say Pittsburgh’s Sergei Gonchar and his cannon of a shot isn’t something to worry about. Or that the less offensively minded Brooks Orpik, Hal Gill, Ryan Whitney and Robert Scuderi aren’t going to be factors in the Finals. Don’t think that for a minute, as this group can be tough to play against. Pittsburgh wins on defensive defensemen, but do the Pens have the speed to contain the Wings? I don’t think they do.

Offense

I saved offense for last because there’s just so much of it between the two teams. Obviously, a lot of the Wing offense starts with their defensemen. For Pittsburgh, its forwards start most, if not all, of the transitions. For Detroit, you have a top line of Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, and Tomas Holmstrom. Together, they’ve put up 23 goals and 27 assists in 16 games.

Compare that to Pittsburgh’s top line of Pascal Dupuis, Crosby, and Marian Hossa, who have a combined 15 goals and 31 assists in 14 games. But before you give Pittsburgh the win, consider the Penguins’ Plan B line, featuring Evgeni Malkin, Petr Sykora, and Ryan Malone, who combine to account for another 20 goals and 22 assists.

Of course, Detroit’s Johan Franzen can practically make that up himself with his 12 goals and three assists. Franzen missed just about all of the Dallas series with concussion symptoms, but it looks like he’ll be ready to go for Saturday and if he’s in anything close to the shape he was in before his injury, Pittsburgh is going to want to consider double-teaming him. But when you talk offense, you have to mention Detroit’s always-involved blue line. And ultimately, that’s going to be the deciding factor in this series.

Does Pittsburgh have the stamina and smarts to not only contain Detroit, but to also launch its own offense? It’s Detroit’s Cup to lose. The Wings will take it in six games.

The Hockey Blog

 

Ice Chips: Coaching Carousel

Unless a miracle happens, we’re about a good seven-to-ten days away from the start of a Detroit-Pittsburgh final. In the meantime, there’s not a heck of a lot to discuss from a fantasy perspective. At this point, if you’ve selected Penguin/Red Wing players, you’re in good shape. If not, well, you probably got knocked out of your playoff pool a while ago.

We can, however, take a glance at next season. Free agency won’t commence until July, but there are several coaching vacancies. With that in mind, will a team change its style under a new head coach? Let’s examine the situations:

Atlanta Thrashers: As RotoRob discussed in one of his rare hockey commentaries, chances are slim-to-none that Don Waddell will return behind the bench or as GM. Whoever gets the role as head coach will get a very dysfunctional group, as this mix of veterans and young players can really only rely on Ilya Kovalchuk and a cast of mixed quality. Will a new coach put the reins on Kovalchuk? Atlanta’s major problems are on the blueline, so look for a more concerted defensive effort from the Thrashers’ new boss. However, expect Kovalchuk to get a little leeway in his creativity.

Colorado Avalanche: This season, the Avalanche played its way into the playoffs despite a disastrous list of injuries. Colorado developed into a steady defensive team, and when the forward group was healthy, the Avs turned into an effective transition team that still retained a sturdy defense. Well, all that went out the window as pretty much everyone but GM Francois Giguere was injured in the playoffs. What can you expect from a new Colorado coach? Avalanche management expressed displeasure at the constant goalie swapping and the quick-to-bench manuevering of Joel Quenneville, so look for some consistency between the pipes. If Colorado is healthy, it will have the horses to play a more offensive attack style — if the new coach dictates it.

Florida Panthers: What a mess in Florida. We know that Jacques Martin is actively seeking a full-time bench boss. We know that Martin’s identity is of stingy defense (even though the team hasn’t executed that properly). We also know that the vaunted Panther youngsters haven’t blossomed (see: Stephen Weiss and Nathan Horton). Whoever is going to take the bench in Florida is either going to have to sooth over relations with captain Olli Jokinen or deal with the fact that Jokinen has been traded, all while trying to turn Jay Bouwmeester into a consistent superstar and getting the most out of the young talent. Florida’s experienced an ugly defensive system since Martin’s been installed there; that means the new coach and system will go one of two ways. One, he’ll maintain Martin’s identity and suck the offensive life out of his talent or, two, he’ll plan an up-tempo style that embraces speed and launches his younger players to a new level. We’ll see.

San Jose Sharks: Any way you look at it, every San Jose Shark other than Evgeni Nabokov had a down year. With coach Ron Wilson out of the picture, the team is still built in the mold GM Doug Wilson envisioned: speedy, skillful, and focused on puck possession. Whoever coaches the Sharks will get a load of a talent that seems unsure of itself. If the new coach can foster a level of consistency, you may see career years out of everyone other than Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo (it’s hard to top 125 points and 56 goals, respectively).

Toronto Maple Leafs: Almost as bad as the Florida situation on the ice and about a billion times worse off it, the Leafs have no identity other than Mats Sundin and a mix of overpaid veterans and unmolded young players. Will youngsters such as Matt Stajan get squashed under a new coach? Will Toronto and Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment accept a coach that develops younger players? Will Sundin even bother coming back? So many questions, so few answers; the only thing certain in Toronto is that it’s only going to get worse before it gets better, and a new coach won’t be able to solve all of the Leafs’ problems.

Also on the chopping block: see what happens with John Tortorella (Tampa Bay), Marc Crawford (Los Angeles), Bryan Murray (Ottawa), Andy Murray (St. Louis), and Alain Vignault (Vancouver). We could see a lot of teams change identities in the offseason, for better or worse.

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Waddell Waddling out of Atlanta?

The Atlanta Thrashers, who have never won a playoff game since entering the league in 1999, appear to be finally ready to hold the only GM they’ve ever had accountable.

The word on the street is that the team has reversed its long standing stance of patience and has asked Don Waddell to step down as general manager.

Waddell is currently helping to oversee the American team at the World Hockey Championships, and will apparently postpone any decision until after the tournament.

It really is high time for a change in Atlanta, considering the lack of success the team has seen in this, the second attempt to make the NHL work in this city.

The Thrashers finally made the playoffs for the first time last year, but were quickly dismissed by the Rangers.

This season, they crashed and burned, dropping to 28th overall. After an ugly 0-6 start, Waddell canned coach Bob Hartley and took over behind the bench himself. Atlanta rebounded, but faded badly down the stretch, winning just five of its final 22 games.

Look at the carnage:

Last season, the club traded for fading veteran Alexei Zhitnik. The price? Young, promising defenceman Braydon Coburn, who is currently helping to anchor the Flyers’ defence corps in their run to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Thrashers are stuck with Zhitnik for another $3.5 million next year – a major albatross since he sat in the press box most nights down the stretch. The team was forced to deal star Marian Hossa after he refused to sign an extension. Hossa believed the team wasn’t headed in the right direction. Hard to fault him for that assessment, is it? Many believe that the only star left on the team – Ilya Kovalchuk – is headed in the same direction. He can become an unrestricted free agent after the 2009-10 season, and Atlanta may be forced to deal him too, barring a major turnaround.

Key to a Thrasher recovery is this offseason, specifically the upcoming draft, one of the strongest in years. Atlanta holds the third overall pick, but with the draft just six weeks away, getting this Waddell situation resolved and installing a new head honcho as soon as possible is vital.

 

Ice Chips: And Then There Were Four…

While the Flyers didn’t end the season with a thud, I don’t think anyone thought they would be playing in the Eastern Conference finals. They were a team that couldn’t hold a lead, with a slow defense, and a top line that seemed to have run out of gas.

Suddenly, they’ve found a second gear, and Daniel Briere is playing like the free agent god-send the Flyers hoped he would be, although he was a bit silent in the Montreal series as he was booed every time he touched the puck. He’s put up 14 points in 12 games, amazingly while averaging a relatively modest 18 minutes or so a night. He’s effective and efficient.

Of course, Briere couldn’t do it alone. He’s joined by Vaclav Prospal, a trade deadline pickup who’s produced 12 points (three goals, nine assists) while clicking very nicely with Briere, and R.J. Umberger who’s put up 11 points (nine goals, two assists). He also has a 25 per cent shot percentage. Effective and efficient. And how about Umberger’s performance against the Habs? Eight goals in five games? Uh, ya. I bet you saw that coming.

Of course, some might argue Philadelphia’s best player has been goalie Marty Biron. If you look at his numbers, they’re really very ordinary (.914 save percentage, 2.72 goals against), but when you consider the Flyers haven’t had a solid presence in goal since Ron Hextall, it suddenly seems very comforting. Because Biron is nothing if not unflappable. And he’s going to need that unflappability with defenseman Kimmo Timonen gone for the rest of the playoffs with a blood clot.

The Flyers have to match up against an increasingly physical Penguin team. Obviously, when people talk about Pittsburgh, they’re going to talk about Sidney Crosby, but he wasn’t a huge factor in the second round. The Penguins’ big man in the second round was Evgeni Malkin, who has six goals and eight assists through two rounds, with four powerplay goals. You have to wonder if the people in Pittsburgh are going to turn in their 87s for 71s. I wish I were a tailor in Pittsburgh.

Powerplays are turning into an interesting indicator of playoff success. If you look at the playoff powerplay leaders from around the league, you see some familiar teams. Philadelphia. Dallas. Detroit. Pittsburgh. Obviously, converting powerplay opportunities is proving to be helpful, which while not surprising, is somehow reassuring. Penalty killing isn’t the answer. Offense still lives in the NHL…

Of course, Thursday night, in Game One of the Detroit-Dallas Western Conference Final, the powerplay was kind of a big deal. Detroit had powerplay goals from Brian Rafalski, Tomas Holmstrom, and of course, the increasingly unstoppable Johan Franzen. Franzen already has 12 playoff goals. That’s the same number of goals he had in his rookie season. An 80-game rookie season.

I don’t actually coach the Stars, but if I did, I wouldn’t give Detroit as much space as Dallas did during Game One. Detroit had the run of the ice, with plenty of red jerseys in front of Stars goalie Marty Turco. Dallas is a defensive team. It needs to remember its tight-checking roots, especially now that defenseman Sergei Zubov is back in the lineup. That guy just doesn’t like to play defense.

The Hockey Blog

 


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