Unless a miracle happens, we’re about a good seven-to-ten days away from the start of a Detroit-Pittsburgh final. In the meantime, there’s not a heck of a lot to discuss from a fantasy perspective. At this point, if you’ve selected Penguin/Red Wing players, you’re in good shape. If not, well, you probably got knocked out of your playoff pool a while ago.

We can, however, take a glance at next season. Free agency won’t commence until July, but there are several coaching vacancies. With that in mind, will a team change its style under a new head coach? Let’s examine the situations:

Atlanta Thrashers: As RotoRob discussed in one of his rare hockey commentaries, chances are slim-to-none that Don Waddell will return behind the bench or as GM. Whoever gets the role as head coach will get a very dysfunctional group, as this mix of veterans and young players can really only rely on Ilya Kovalchuk and a cast of mixed quality. Will a new coach put the reins on Kovalchuk? Atlanta’s major problems are on the blueline, so look for a more concerted defensive effort from the Thrashers’ new boss. However, expect Kovalchuk to get a little leeway in his creativity.

Colorado Avalanche: This season, the Avalanche played its way into the playoffs despite a disastrous list of injuries. Colorado developed into a steady defensive team, and when the forward group was healthy, the Avs turned into an effective transition team that still retained a sturdy defense. Well, all that went out the window as pretty much everyone but GM Francois Giguere was injured in the playoffs. What can you expect from a new Colorado coach? Avalanche management expressed displeasure at the constant goalie swapping and the quick-to-bench manuevering of Joel Quenneville, so look for some consistency between the pipes. If Colorado is healthy, it will have the horses to play a more offensive attack style — if the new coach dictates it.

Florida Panthers: What a mess in Florida. We know that Jacques Martin is actively seeking a full-time bench boss. We know that Martin’s identity is of stingy defense (even though the team hasn’t executed that properly). We also know that the vaunted Panther youngsters haven’t blossomed (see: Stephen Weiss and Nathan Horton). Whoever is going to take the bench in Florida is either going to have to sooth over relations with captain Olli Jokinen or deal with the fact that Jokinen has been traded, all while trying to turn Jay Bouwmeester into a consistent superstar and getting the most out of the young talent. Florida’s experienced an ugly defensive system since Martin’s been installed there; that means the new coach and system will go one of two ways. One, he’ll maintain Martin’s identity and suck the offensive life out of his talent or, two, he’ll plan an up-tempo style that embraces speed and launches his younger players to a new level. We’ll see.

San Jose Sharks: Any way you look at it, every San Jose Shark other than Evgeni Nabokov had a down year. With coach Ron Wilson out of the picture, the team is still built in the mold GM Doug Wilson envisioned: speedy, skillful, and focused on puck possession. Whoever coaches the Sharks will get a load of a talent that seems unsure of itself. If the new coach can foster a level of consistency, you may see career years out of everyone other than Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo (it’s hard to top 125 points and 56 goals, respectively).

Toronto Maple Leafs: Almost as bad as the Florida situation on the ice and about a billion times worse off it, the Leafs have no identity other than Mats Sundin and a mix of overpaid veterans and unmolded young players. Will youngsters such as Matt Stajan get squashed under a new coach? Will Toronto and Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment accept a coach that develops younger players? Will Sundin even bother coming back? So many questions, so few answers; the only thing certain in Toronto is that it’s only going to get worse before it gets better, and a new coach won’t be able to solve all of the Leafs’ problems.

Also on the chopping block: see what happens with John Tortorella (Tampa Bay), Marc Crawford (Los Angeles), Bryan Murray (Ottawa), Andy Murray (St. Louis), and Alain Vignault (Vancouver). We could see a lot of teams change identities in the offseason, for better or worse.

May 17th, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Ice Chips, Mike Chen . Author: Mike Chen . Comments: 4 Comments

While the Flyers didn’t end the season with a thud, I don’t think anyone thought they would be playing in the Eastern Conference finals. They were a team that couldn’t hold a lead, with a slow defense, and a top line that seemed to have run out of gas.

Suddenly, they’ve found a second gear, and Daniel Briere is playing like the free agent god-send the Flyers hoped he would be, although he was a bit silent in the Montreal series as he was booed every time he touched the puck. He’s put up 14 points in 12 games, amazingly while averaging a relatively modest 18 minutes or so a night. He’s effective and efficient.

Of course, Briere couldn’t do it alone. He’s joined by Vaclav Prospal, a trade deadline pickup who’s produced 12 points (three goals, nine assists) while clicking very nicely with Briere, and R.J. Umberger who’s put up 11 points (nine goals, two assists). He also has a 25 per cent shot percentage. Effective and efficient. And how about Umberger’s performance against the Habs? Eight goals in five games? Uh, ya. I bet you saw that coming.

Of course, some might argue Philadelphia’s best player has been goalie Marty Biron. If you look at his numbers, they’re really very ordinary (.914 save percentage, 2.72 goals against), but when you consider the Flyers haven’t had a solid presence in goal since Ron Hextall, it suddenly seems very comforting. Because Biron is nothing if not unflappable. And he’s going to need that unflappability with defenseman Kimmo Timonen gone for the rest of the playoffs with a blood clot.

The Flyers have to match up against an increasingly physical Penguin team. Obviously, when people talk about Pittsburgh, they’re going to talk about Sidney Crosby, but he wasn’t a huge factor in the second round. The Penguins’ big man in the second round was Evgeni Malkin, who has six goals and eight assists through two rounds, with four powerplay goals. You have to wonder if the people in Pittsburgh are going to turn in their 87s for 71s. I wish I were a tailor in Pittsburgh.

Powerplays are turning into an interesting indicator of playoff success. If you look at the playoff powerplay leaders from around the league, you see some familiar teams. Philadelphia. Dallas. Detroit. Pittsburgh. Obviously, converting powerplay opportunities is proving to be helpful, which while not surprising, is somehow reassuring. Penalty killing isn’t the answer. Offense still lives in the NHL…

Of course, Thursday night, in Game One of the Detroit-Dallas Western Conference Final, the powerplay was kind of a big deal. Detroit had powerplay goals from Brian Rafalski, Tomas Holmstrom, and of course, the increasingly unstoppable Johan Franzen. Franzen already has 12 playoff goals. That’s the same number of goals he had in his rookie season. An 80-game rookie season.

I don’t actually coach the Stars, but if I did, I wouldn’t give Detroit as much space as Dallas did during Game One. Detroit had the run of the ice, with plenty of red jerseys in front of Stars goalie Marty Turco. Dallas is a defensive team. It needs to remember its tight-checking roots, especially now that defenseman Sergei Zubov is back in the lineup. That guy just doesn’t like to play defense.

May 9th, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Ice Chips, Steven Ovadia . Author: Steven Ovadia . Comments: 1 Comment

As series get closed out, we’re running out of pure fantasy-related things to talk about. Ultimately, if you’re in a league where you have to make picks with just one or two trades available for the duration of the playoffs, there’s a good chance you’re either totally hosed at this point or you’re in contention — and that’s all a matter of how the puck bounces. With that in mind, let’s take a look at a few of the sleepers that may give you a little extra push from the remaining teams.

Johan Franzen isn’t exactly an unknown quantity, but I don’t think anyone, least of all Colorado coach Joel Quenneville, expected him to put up back-to-back hat tricks. There’s almost next to no chance that Franzen is available in any league with multiple transactions, but some of his more unheralded teammates may be. Jiri Hudler’s numbers aren’t as gaudy as Franzen’s, but he’s still just about a point per game. Mikeal Samuelsson is just under that, but he’s flying far further underneath the radar.

Thanks to Dallas blowing it Friday night, San Jose will have at least one more game, and that’s good news for Joe Pavelski. The unheralded sophomore became big-time news with his overtime winner in Game Five. With nine points in 12 games, he’s not exactly having a bad playoff to boot, and while the focus is on San Jose’s big guns, Pavelski’s stealing a little fantasy thunder for himself.

While the Rangers are trying to climb out of a near-impossible hole (and it could all end Sunday), if they somehow manage to extend the series against Pittsburgh, former Penguin Martin Straka will still be chugging along. It helps that he plays with Jaromir Jagr. On the other end of the spectrum, someone in Pittsburgh is getting points besides Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Marian Hossa: his name is Ryan Malone. And while the gritty winger has made some fantasy splashes before, so far he’s got as many points as the highly paid Hossa.

Besides the fantasy aspect, there’s the whole playoff pick ‘em game floating around. Most of these brackets are locked before the playoffs start, but that doesn’t mean we can’t analyze it a little bit. My own personal feeling is that Detroit is as strong as it seems, but at the same time, the Wings haven’t been tested too much.

Put it this way: you’ve got a Nashville squad that could barely put up 20 shots a game and played without two of its best players (Jason Arnott and David Legwand) for a significant part of the series. If Nashville wasn’t so gritty — and Dan Ellis wasn’t so on the spot — the score could have been as lopsided as the shots-against.

Sure, Detroit demolished Colorado, but it played an Avalanche squad that was essentially without their usual top two lines. Combine that with a flu-sapped Jose Theodore and an injured Scott Hannan and the Avs were ripe for the picking.

That’s not to dismiss the quality of play Detroit put up during the series. The Wings are still the monster to beat in the West; their supreme puck control and special teams show that they’re a cut above the rest. However, it’ll be interesting to see how they respond in a series where it’s not men against boys (or men against injured men).

May 3rd, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Ice Chips, Mike Chen . Author: Mike Chen . Comments: 4 Comments

As the Stanley Cup playoffs march on, player stats become a bit more challenging to interpret. Of course, if you spent the past week watching your team go to a Game Seven, you might not even be aware stats are still being given out.

For instance, looking at Flyer Daniel Briere’s line so far, it’s pretty impressive. He leads the NHL with 11 playoff points. But don’t forget, Briere (who is obviously well-loved in Montreal, by the way) has already played eight games. Compare that with Pittsburgh’s Sidney Crosby. Crosby has eight points in just four games, a much more economical line. Heck, even New York Ranger Jaromir Jagr, a bit of a dud during the regular season, has eight points over five games. The moral of the story? If you’re not putting up great numbers, see if you can keep your series going. If your numbers are good, then end the series as quickly as you can.

Speaking of ending a series quickly, over in Minnesota, defensemen Kim Johnsson and Brent Burns probably couldn’t wait for their series against the Avs to end. The two blueliners averaged around 28 minutes of ice time per game during the playoffs. I haven’t checked in a while, but the Wild have other blueliners too, right?

One thing you have to love about the playoffs is that it really lets the clutch players rise to the top. Flyer Joffrey Lupul’s regular season line (20 goals, 26 assists) was solid if not spectacular (especially given his late-season struggles), and his playoff run started slowly but culminated in a first round clincher in overtime. Thursday night, in the second round opener against the Habs, Lupul struck again, putting up another goal (although I’m not convinced it should have counted). Sadly, it wasn’t enough as the Flyers went down in overtime.

Over in Round Six of the classic Detroit-Colorado rivalry, Johan Franzen picked up the pace also, scoring two goals and adding an assist in Detroit’s Game One win. Franzen ended the season on fire, but was pretty quiet in the Red Wings’ first round win over Nashville. You have to wonder how long Colorado will last in the second round, though. Peter Forsberg missed the opener with a groin injury, and honestly, if it wasn’t that, it would have been his ankle, or an in-grown hair, or morning sickness or rickets. If that wasn’t bad enough, Colorado goalie Jose Theodore gave up four goals on the first 16 shots he saw, before going home sick to the team hotel. Backup Peter Budaj stopped the next 20 shots, but Colorado does not want a goalie controversy. You know. Like in Detroit, where backup Chris Osgood started Game One over Dominik Hasek.

Round Two Previews

April 25th, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Ice Chips, Steven Ovadia . Author: Steven Ovadia . Comments: 2 Comments

We’re almost done with the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, but despite the number of 3-1 and 3-2 series, you never want to count anyone out until the series is finally over. However, we can analyze individual play — and see how accurate Ice Chips has been so far.

We wrote: “For example, a lot of people will probably pass over Patrick Marleau because of his pitiful regular season totals, but a quick look shows that he had a respectable past 20 games and he’s one of the leaders in playoff goals over the past three seasons.”

Not a bad one to start with. Not only as Marleau been strong shift-in and shift-out so far against Calgary, he’s also put up considerable numbers every game — and for the first time in his career, he’s looking like he’s worthy of the captain’s C.

Richards hasn’t lit the world on fire, but he’s proved to be much more valuable than his initial few games indicated.

The Rangers didn’t sign Drury to put up 100 points in the regular season; they wanted him to score in the clutch. However, he’s been held off the scoresheet for the majority of the first-round series against New Jersey. The Rangers’ other key signing, Scott Gomez, has fulfilled his promise though.

As for Iginla, he (along with Dion Phaneuf) is really the only reason why the Calgary Flames have put up such a competitive fight against the San Jose Sharks. Every time Iginla touches the puck, something good happens for Calgary. The Calgary media has been quick to point out that his supporting cast hasn’t really done their job, though.

This is true in theory. In execution? Well…Campbell has looked like a deer in headlights at times, Niedermayer’s team preferred sleeping to playing, while Streit and Andrei Markov haven’t done much either. Phaneuf, however, has been a catalyst for Calgary. Surprise defensive standouts include Andrew Ference of Boston and Patrice “Breeze By” Brisebois of Montreal.

As of this writing, Nabokov has been a leader on and off the ice for San Jose with its 3-2 series lead against Calgary. Hasek? He’s played some of the worst hockey of his career (his words, not mine) and lost his starting job to Chris Osgood.

Iginla, Sidney Crosby, Ryane Clowe – which one of these in not like the others? While Clowe is a skilled player, he’s better known as being a big body rather than a scorer. Still, these are the types of players that rise to the occasion during the playoffs. Other notable players who’ve elevated their respective games include Ryan Malone, Mike Knuble, Loui Eriksson, and rookie Brandon Dubinsky.

Whoops.

Cha-ching!

Double cha-ching!

Where do we go from here? It’s difficult to say that Marc-Andre Fleury will put up the same numbers in the second round that he did against Ottawa. The Senators, though extremely talented, lacked focus and passion. Whoever the Penguins play in the conference semis, it’s simply going to be far more difficult than Pittsburgh’s first-round smackdown of Ottawa.

Barring a minor miracle over the next few days, the Philadelphia Flyers will upset the Washington Capitals, and big kudos have to go to the entire team. It’s been a complete effort with diverse scoring and strong defense. Check for grinders that are putting pucks in the net such as the aforementioned Knuble; they may still be available in your league.

And who’s gone pointless so far? Marian Gaborik of Minnesota and Chris Higgins of Montreal. In fact, Montreal’s top performers, including Alexei Kovalev, haven’t done all that well, but its fourth-line grinders have overachieved, making them perfect fantasy sleepers.

And on a final note, what’s powering the New York Rangers? Not Sean Avery, not Gomez, not Henrik Lundqvist…no, the Blueshirts are fueled by the might of Jaromir Jagr’s soul patch.

April 19th, 2008
Categories: HOCKEY, Ice Chips, Mike Chen . Author: Mike Chen . Comments: 4 Comments