You’ve got to be impressed with the turnaround the Baltimore Orioles’ organization has undergone in the last year. After failing to win even 70 games last season, the O’s are playing better than .500 ball through the first three months of the season, with homegrown talent playing a vital role in the resurgence.

Anchored by organization-developed stars like Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Daniel Cabrera and Garrett Olson, a system that was in total disarray very recently is now at very least mediocre, and improving rapidly. The last three drafts have proved much more fruitful for the O’s, something that will stead this team well as it looks to make hay in the tough AL East in the coming years.

Let’s examine some of the future Orioles we’ll be hearing more about soon:

Colin Allen, a 21-year-old righty the O’s selected in the 22nd round last year, has been almost untouchable so far this season with the Rookie-level Bluefield Orioles. Armed with a go-to curveball and a 91 mph fastball, the converted outfielder has struck out 15 batters in a team-high 13 1/3 IP, limiting opponents to a BA under .175. Allen credits Bluefield pitching coach Troy Mattes with instilling in him the idea that pitchers shouldn’t give hitters too much credit – a concept that’s stead the youngster very well as he puts himself on the map as a prospect.

Lance West, a 39th round pick in last month’s draft, is proving to be a real great late-round steal so far, seamlessly making the transition to the pro game. The 20-year-old is hitting for power (four homers, .730 SLG), average (almost .300) and is showing on-base skills (with an OBP of almost .425). Coming off back-to-back multi-hit games, West is on a tear and may be a candidate to move to Class-A before season’s end.

Catcher Wally Crancer, a 12th round pick in 2007, has made great strides offensively this season. Through 45 games at Class-A Delmarva, he’s batting .296 with four homers and 16 walks. He’s been converted from the outfield to help advance his career, and so far, it has not affected his offense, a very common occurance when a player is shifted, especially behind the plate. Crancer has also played some left and right field, DH and even first base, so the team is doing whatever it takes to keep the soon to be 24-year-old’s bat in the lineup. He’ll need to move quickly to have a chance to become a prospect.

I love what I’m seeing out of Zach Britton, a third round pick in 2006. The 6’2†lefty has handled the move up to Delmarva with ease this season, going 7-5 with an excellent 2.85 ERA through 16 starts. He’s yielded just 76 hits and 25 walks in 88 1/3 IP, fanning 64. Just 20 years old, this is a kid that needs to be watched.

Jake Arrieta, the O’s fifth rounder last year, is performing quite admirably in his professional debut for the Class-A Frederick Keys. Despite some recent struggles, the 22-year-old righty is 5-4 with an ERA barely over 3.00 and 91 Ks in 89 2/3 IP. He’s allowed just 64 hits. At one time, Arrieta was expected to go in the top 20 picks of the draft, but he slipped all the way to the fifth round when he pitched very inconsistently in the month leading up to the draft. He could prove to be a serious steal, and is someone to watch in keeper leagues.

Matt Wieters, the fifth overall pick last year, signed too late to make his pro debut in 2007, but man, is he ever living up to the hype this year. The 22-year-old switch hitting catcher dominating High-A ball, batting .345 with 15 homers and 44 walks in 69 games before a recent promotion to Double-A Bowie. Clearly, the higher level is not intimidating Wieters, as he continues to wield a potent bat (.292) with power (one homer and three doubles in 24 at bats) and superior plate discipline (five walks, three strikeouts). Make no mistake: this kid is the real deal, and it wouldn’t shock me if he’s ready to challenge for a starting job in B-More as soon as next spring. In fact, I would be shocked if Wieters isn’t in the majors by this time next year. Expect to see him at the very top of most prospect lists heading into 2009.

David Hernandez, Baltimore’s 16th round pick in 2005, has arrived as a prospect this season after some very middling results his first two pro seasons. The 23-year-old righty has made the jump to Double-A – the toughest leap for a pitcher – look easy. He’s 5-1, 2.63 with 100 strikeouts in 89 innings, while limiting opponents to a .209 BAA. Hernandez has been especially untouchable in his last four starts (seven hits and two earned runs in 24 2/3 IP, showing near no-hit stuff in back-to-back starts), so if he can sharpen his control a smidgeon, we could have a serious prospect on our hands here.

Chris Tillman, Seattle’s second rounder in 2006 who came to the O’s in the Erik Bedard deal, has looked fantastic at Bowie. Just 20, this righty has a very bright future, and the fact that he’s been able to maintain a solid K rate (81 in 79 IP) despite the jump to a higher level at such a young age has me very impressed. Opponents are batting just .214 against Tillman, a name that needs to targeted in keeper leagues.

Outfielder Nolan Reimold, despite solid numbers, has been a bit of a disappointment at Double-A only because in his half-season there in 2007, he was fantastic. Still, he’s coming around of late and definitely looks to have his power mojo back with six dingers, a double and nine RBI in the last five games. If this keeps up, he could find himself at Camden before season’s end.

July 4th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Minor Matters, Prospects, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: No Comments

Fernando Perez, the Rays’ seventh round pick in 2004, is having some issues adjusting to his first season of Triple-A ball, but Saturday he showed flashes of what he’s capable of, finishing just a double shy of the cycle as the Durham Bulls earned their sixth win in eight games. The dinger was the first of the season for the 25-year-old outfielder, who put himself on the map last year with a breakout, although injury-shortened season at Double-A in which he experienced a power spike. He’s been inconsistent so far this year, and he’s definitely whiffing too much (at least one in five straight games), but Perez has a chance to carve out a career as an extra outfielder because of his speed and gap power.

Veteran Chris Richard is making a play to get back to the Show. He launched a pair of dingers Saturday, becoming the first Bull this season to produce a five-RBI day in the process, to continue a serious roll. The 33-year-old, who played four seasons in the bigs, last appearing there in 2003 with the Rockies, is coming off a fine Triple-A campaign in 2007. After a sluggish start this year, he’s taking it to the next level, going 15-for-30 on the Durham homestand with three dingers and ten RBI. Richard’s got some pop, but of course, so does the current first baseman in Tampa Bay. Still, Richard is proving that he could supply some power off a major league bench as an extra corner infielder/outfielder.

One vet who does not look ready to get back to the majors is Tomo Ohka. Currently toiling for the Charlotte Knights (the White Sox’s Triple-A affiliate), Ohka has been battered in three of his last four starts, dropping to 0-7, 6.12 for the year. In 50 IP, he’s given up 66 hits and 20 walks. Uh, yeah. As bad as Ohka was in his ten starts for the Jays last year, he’s been even worse in the minors. Of course, who knows what that means. Last season, Ohka was actually better in the majors than he was in the minors, and that’s not saying much. Frankly, it’s about time the 32-year-old chose another occupation.

The Rays may soon need to free up some space for outfielder Justin Ruggiano. After he put up a big year at Triple-A in 2007, showing a very nice power-speed combo, he made his major league debut. This year, he’s already earned a bit of PT in Tampa when B.J. Upton was hurting, but he has taken things to a whole new level down in the minors. The 26-year-old is 9-for-20 during his current five-game hit streak, scoring seven runs and driving in eight with a double and homer. For the year, Ruggiano is up to .360 with 20 RBI in 21 games and 75 at bats. This guy is ready for a crack at the majors.

As if Tampa didn’t have enough options, minor league veteran Jeremy Cummings is suddenly looking like he’s finally ready to take on the majors. The 31-year-old righty, originally a 21st round pick of the Cardinals way back in 1999, has been toiling at Triple-A for years. Now in his first season in the Rays organization, he’s 2-0, 1.64 through his first two starts, with just six hits allowed in 11 IP. On Saturday, pitching on just three days rest, he tossed an impressive five innings for the W. Could we have a Jim Morris, Part Two on our hands in Tampa Bay?

Remember Ben Hendrickson? The one-time Brewer pitching prospect who got battered in each of his big league trials is now in the Ray organization, and so far, it’s been a smart pickup by Tampa Bay. Hendrickson is still just 27, so who knows? The lightbulb may still come on for him at some point. He’s certainly getting the job done at Durham this year, notwithstanding some serious control issues. He’s almost always had some challenges with walks, but this year, it’s real bad. Still, how can you ignore a starter who is holding the opposition to a .175 BAA? That’s worth tracking, I’d say.

Should the Rays need some help in middle relief, it looks like Calvin Medlock is ready. A 39th round pick by Cincy in 2002, the 25-year-old righty came to the Rays last year in the Jorge Cantu deal, and it’s another smart move by Tampa Bay as this kid appears to have some upside. Through 11 appearances, he’s 1-1, 1.50 with just ten hits allowed in 18 IP. The control is a problem (ten walks), but believe it or not, it’s actually an improvement over his Triple-A debut last season.

Okay, so Grant Balfour didn’t win a job in the Rays’ pen. But he’s gone down to Triple-A Durham, grabbed the closer job, and run with it. On Saturday, pitching in a non-save situation, he gave up his first run of the season. The 30-year-old Aussie is 1-0, 0.49 with six saves and he’s been touched for just five hits in 18 1/3 IP while fanning 29. No, those aren’t Nintendo numbers. I have always been a big fan of Balfour, and while he flopped in the majors last year, these results warrant another shot for him.

May 19th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Minor Matters, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 3 Comments

Ian Kennedy, who flamed out with the Yanks and was farmed out, is getting another chance. He’s been recalled to start Thursday afternoon against the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays (how weird is it to type that?). Kennedy didn’t waste any time getting his act together in Triple-A, tossing a superb 7 1/3 innings of one-hit, shutout ball with eight strikeouts and no walks in his first start. Monday, he started the first game of the doubleheader, but threw only one shutout frame before calling it a day, in anticipation of this start Thursday. The Yankees are scuffling, but aren’t in too big a hole yet. Salvaging a split against the Rays would be a good start, so there’s a lot of pressure on Kennedy. His control is obviously back, and assuming he has regained his confidence, hell play a very large part in whether or not this team is headed back to the postseason for a 14th consecutive season.

If Kennedy flops again, one name to keep an eye on is Steven White. The Yankees’ fourth rounder in 2003, White keeps improving his Triple-A numbers to the point where he’s sneaking onto the radar as someone who can help the big league team. Ranked by Baseball America as the fourth best prospect in the system in 2004, the 26-year-old slipped from the list the past few years, but his numbers this year are screaming out for attention. Smart owners will listen, as White has won his last three starts and is 4-1, 2.66 overall, with 35 Ks in 47 1/3 IP. I think he’s ready to at least get an audition, and given the holes in the Yanks’ rotation, that may be coming soon.

Another Yankee farmhand who is showing progress this season is outfielder Brett Gardner, the team’s third round pick in 2005. Gardner had an excellent season at Double-A last year, but found the adjustment to Triple-A somewhat challenging after a mid-season promotion. This year, despite some recent struggles, he’s picked up the pace, batting .285 through 36 games and 130 at bats. Gardner has displayed nice extra-base pop, good strike zone judgment, patience and speed. The highest drafted player in the history of the College of Charleston, the 24-year-old Gardner is someone with strong top-of-the-order skills who could carve out a major league career once opportunity comes knocking.

Andrew McCutchen, who we ranked 17th among our top 35 prospects heading into the season, is having some challenges at Triple-A recently, batting just .205 over the past ten games with 14 strikeouts. Let’s bear in mind that he’s still only 21, and overall, I like the progress he’s shown this year, both in terms of on-base skills (20 walks in 39 games after walking just four times in 17 games in his first taste of Triple-A last year) and power (ten doubles, six homers and 19 RBI). This guy’s got speed, developing power and can hit for average. Expect to see McCutchen rise into the top 10 prospects for 2008, assuming he isn’t in Pittsburgh long enough this year to lose his rookie eligibility. Right now, the Buccos don’t have any room for him with all three of their starting outfielders playing well. And with the Pirates actually hanging around .500 still, there’s no reason to start the youth movement quite yet. McCutchen is definitely a name to tuck away for the second half, however.

Remember Scott Strickland? The former Expo spent six seasons in the bigs, recording a 3.34 ERA through 236 games. But he hasn’t appeared in a major league game since 2005 with Houston. Now in the Yankees’ organization, this 32-year-old reliever is pitching pretty well so far in 2008, going 2-0 with a 4.19 ERA and over a strikeout per inning. He’s held righties to a .220 BAA, so perhaps he can still help a major league bullpen.

Still with the Yankees’ Triple-A bullpen, veteran minor leaguer Scott Patterson is starting to figure out this level after some early-season struggles. The 28-year-old righty was dominant at Double-A in 2007, recording a 1.09 ERA with 91 strikeouts and just 15 walks and 45 hits allowed in 74 1/3 IP, earning his first career Triple-A appearance along the way. Well, he started sluggishly this year, but is coming around with seven straight appearances without an earned run allowed, lowering his season mark to 3.00 through 16 games. He’s got good control and is striking out one per inning, so perhaps he’ll be considered as a possible injury replacement on the Yanks should it be necessary.

Billy Traber, who made the team out of Spring Training as the Yankees’ left-handed reliever, has struggled somewhat since his demotion back to Triple-A last month. He actually wasn’t awful in New York, but wasn’t exactly dominating southpaws, so the team felt no need to keep him around. Since his return to the minors, Traber’s numbers aren’t good (4.91 ERA), but his peripherals are strong (six hits and two walks with nine strikeouts in 7 1/3 IP). This 28-year-old could get another shot in the Yankee pen later this season.

Here’s another name to track in the bullpen of the Yanks’ top affiliate – David Robertson. The team’s 17th round pick in 2006 dominated at Double-A, earning a quick promotion to Triple-A. Since taking a beating in his debut, Robertson has settled down with three straight scoreless outings, even earning his first Triple-A win in his last appearance. He’ll need to sharpen his control to get a chance in the bigs, but considering this righty is just 23, let’s cut him some slack as he adjusts to the higher level.

Finally, Steven Jackson is also pitching very well in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre bullpen. Arizona’s tenth round pick in 2004, Jackson came to the Yankee organization in the Randy Johnson trade last year. He began the year at Double-A, but has since been promoted to Triple-A, and although his overall numbers the two levels aren’t eye popping (4.50 ERA through 14 games), his peripherals suggest he’s pitching much better than that, with just 24 hits and eight walks allowed while he’s fanned 28 in 28 IP. He even chalked up his first Triple-A save earlier this week after picking up one in Double-A.

May 15th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Minor Matters, RotoRob, Transactional analysis . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 8 Comments

Should Felix Pie continue to struggle and Reed Johnson remain, well…Reed Johnson, the Cubbies might want to explore the option of promoting Andres Torres. Torres is on a serious roll for the Triple-A Iowa Cubs, running his hitting streak to 22 games Wednesday – the fourth-longest in team history. Only Roosevelt Brown (26 games, 1999), Steve Staggs (33, 1977) and Mike Squires (33, 1978) have rung up longer batting streaks as Iowa Cubs. Torres, a fourth-round pick for the Tigers back in 1997, is now in his fifth organization, having appeared in 89 MLB games with Detroit and Texas, but none since 2005. The 30-year-old outfielder was batting .263 when the streak began last month, no big surprise considering in ten minor league seasons his lifetime BA is .268. However, a 31-for-82 run since has him up to .353 for the year. He’s not a power hitter, but with a .525 SLG, Torres is showing more pop than ever before. And I’m impressed with his much improved strike zone judgment (16 BB/19 K). Torres enjoyed his finest Triple-A season in 2007, and appears to have taken the next step so far in 2008. Could we be witnessing a late bloomer?

R.A. Dickey, who was called up last month to fill in for Erik Bedard and predictably took a beating in his couple of appearances with the Mariners, has struggled since his demotion back to Triple-A. He’s lost his last three starts, surrendering 32 hits in 21 innings. Still, his season ERA of 3.25 is impressive, so Dickey could get another look as an injury-fill in, assuming he stops getting tattooed in the minors.

Another pitcher who’s doing pretty well is Iowa starter Randy Keisler. He earned the win Wednesday for his six-inning, six-hit, one-earned run effort that included four Ks against two walks. Keisler wasn’t exactly the tonic the Cardinals needed last year with Chris Carpenter out, and he wasn’t long for the job. But this season his hit rates haven’t been awful, his command has been good, and he’s averaging almost a strikeout per inning with a fine 3.50 ERA for the Cubs. Given Jon Lieber’s rather horrific debut in the rotation, perhaps Keisler, the former Yankee prospect, will get another look in a major league rotation. Of course, he’s never done much with the opportunities that have been presented to him, so maybe this isn’t as juicy a prospect as you think. Still, you never know when lightning will strike, and Keisler’s peripherals do suggest that his improvement may be real, especially given a much higher groundball rate to date.

Should the Cubbies require bullpen help, Jose Ascanio is worth a look. The former Brave farmhand just turned 23, so there’s plenty of upside here. And he’s done a superb job as the Iowa closer, with just 14 hits allowed and 16 strikeouts in 17 1/3 IP. Ascanio, with a 1-0 mark, 2.60 ERA and seven saves, will get another chance in the majors very soon, and he’s got future closer written all over him, although Carlos Marmol looks quite qualified to step up should Kerry Wood falter.

May 8th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Minor Matters, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 3 Comments

Josh Towers wasn’t horrific with the Jays last year, but he’s been firestarter for Colorado Springs this season.

Josh Towers wasn’t awful last year in his role as a swingman for the Jays, but he sure is sucking in his current capacity as a starter for the Triple-A Colorado Springs Sox. Through five starts, he’s showing his usual good control (five walks), but has also been touched up for five long balls. Towers was in contention for the fifth starter job in Colorado this spring, but don’t expect the Rox to come calling for the 31-year-old righty any time soon with those kinds of results.

Remember when Chris George was a prospect? The Royals first rounder (31st overall) back in 1998, George last appeared in the majors in 2004, and judging by how badly his game has deteriorated, he won’t be back any time soon. Pitching out of the Sky Sox pen (he’s not even good enough to be a Triple-A starter any more), George has been torched for a .390 BAA through 14 innings. The good news? He has yet to yield a long ball after coughing up 21 last season.

Matt Daley, another Colorado Springs reliever, looks like someone who could actually help the big league club at some point this year. He had a decent year as a swingman for Double-A Tulsa last season, but stepped up this year, earning a quick promotion to Triple-A, where he’s held his own for the most part, despite a couple of rough outings recently. Daley, a 2005 Sally League All-Star, has fanned 15 in 11 2/3 IP, the kind of dominance that gets noticed.

Another reliever I expected could help the Rockies this year was Juan Morillo. He’s had unsuccessful cups of coffee with the big league team the last two seasons, and put himself on the radar with a dominant showing in Double-A last year. However, Morillo’s control has completely gone AWOL in this, his first full year of Triple-A. While opponents are only batting .241 against him, and he’s striking out better than a batter per inning, Morillo has walked an ungodly 18 in just 8 2/3 innings. Things are looking a bit better for him over the last few outings, so perhaps he’s nipping this problem in the bud. Morillo will need to if he has aspirations of seeing any significant time in the bigs this summer.

Back in Spring Training, I wrote about Padre pitching prospect Wade LeBlanc and how his changeup had put him in the picture for the San Diego fifth starter job. Uh, yeah. Well, he’s been rancid at Triple-A Portland so far, and is clearly not adjusting to life at this level. LeBlanc, the team’s second rounder in 2006, has progressed through the system very quickly and is only 23, so there’s plenty of time for him to figure things out. But through his first five starts, he’s been shelled for 35 hits, five homers and 13 walks in just 22 1/3 IP. In particular, LeBlanc’s last two starts have been horrible, so perhaps he’s battling an injury. His flyball rate is up, and that’s not helping matters. This kid has talent, his track record is strong, and he was very solid in 2007 at both High-A and Double-A, so keep an eye on him.

OF Sean Barker, who made his MLB debut last year for Colorado, continues to put up consistently strong numbers in this, his third year of Triple-A, as mostly a part-time player. A six-game hit streak has him up to .291 for the year, with 20 RBI in 24 games. More promising still, after walking 14 times in 72 games last season, Barker has already drawn 10 free passes this year, a newfound skill that should help put him in line for a call up should injury to one of the Rockies’ outfielders necessitate an extra flyhawk at Coors. Barker, the team’s sixth rounder in 2002, will be 28 next month, so the best we can probably hope for is he carves out a career as a fourth or fifth outfielder.

Remember Enrique Gonzalez? The D-Backs’ fifth starter in 2006, who got all of one start last year with the Snakes after a less than impressive year at Triple-A? Me thinks that Arizona gave up on the still-just-25-year-old too soon. He was waived, and claimed by the Nats in September, but they never brought him up, and in February, San Diego claimed him. Gonzalez made the team out of Spring Training, but was outrighted a couple of weeks ago after starting poorly. Since moving to Portland, Gonzalez was strong in a couple of relief appearances and decent in his only start. But with 13 strikeouts in just seven innings, it’s clear that Gonzalez could be an asset in the Padres’ pen at some point. I’d keep an eye on him.

Former Diamondback prospect Adam Bass is getting roughed up something fierce in the Portland Beaver bullpen. Bass, a 10th round pick by the D-Backs in 2003, was excellent at Triple-A Tucson last year, garnering attention from the Rakuten Golden Eagles of the NPB, if not Arizona. He spent the rest of the season in Japan, but was hammered for 30 hits in 15 1/3 IP. Now, he’s back in Triple-A, and appears no closer to getting to the majors. He’s pitched a bit better his last couple of times out, but has been ripped for 20 hits and six walks in just 12 2/3 IP over 10 appearances. The 26-year-old righty will need to show marked improvement if he’s hoping to make his big league debut this year.

April 30th, 2008
Categories: BASEBALL, Minor Matters, RotoRob . Author: RotoRob . Comments: 1 Comment