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The Wire Troll: The Butler Did It

With Tim McLeod off at a family funeral (our condolences to his family), RotoRob takes over the Troll again this week.

Damaso Marte, Pittsburgh, RP: This week’s top candidate in the revolving door we have come to know as the “closer†comes from the Steel City. Although his K rate has slipped since 2007, the 33-year-old southpaw has still been fairly dominant, with 44 strikeouts in 40 2/3 innings this year. Marte’s ERA is currently at 3.54 and he’s issued just 11 free passes. The injury to closer Matt Capps that has opened the door for Marte is bursitis and internal rotation deficit in his right shoulder. We’re looking at a two month minimum and may possibly have seen the end of Capps this season, so Marte has been among the week’s most popular plucks.

Reid Brignac, Tampa Bay, SS: Brignac, our 29th-ranked prospect heading into the season, was enjoying a fairly solid debut season at Triple-A, batting .265 BA with seven homers and 38 RBI. His 69 strikeouts to 21 walks and an OPS of just 743, however, suggests to me that Brignac may still require some seasoning. Maybe he’s really ready, but either way an injury to Jason Bartlett is providing this 22-year-old with an opportunity. While Brignac looked to be on the fast track two seasons ago, he’s slipped a bit as he’s gotten closer to the finish line. We obviously still really like this kid’s chances of blossoming into a stud SS in time, so keeper league owners need to pay attention. But as for those looking for help today, just deep AL-only league owners need pay attention at this time, especially since the Rays also recalled Ben Zobrist, who looks like he’ll share PT with the youngster.

Masahide Kobayashi, Cleveland, RP: Way back in mid-May, we mentioned Kobayashi for the first time and made the observation that Manager Eric Wedge would be returning Joe Borowski to the closer role upon his return from the DL. But the larger question was for how long? How about until July 3 to be exact? Borowski simply could not get the job done and the Indians have decided to cut him and move forward. Kobayashi certainly has the background to handle the job, with seven consecutive years with 20 or more saves in Japan before heading to North America this year. Grab him in all formats, but keep an eye on the Rafaels: Perez and Betancourt.

Billy Butler, Kansas City, 1B: Demoted at the end of May, Butler didn’t exactly go down to Triple-A Omaha and pout, batting .337 with six doubles, five homers and 14 walks in 26 games. Brought back up last weekend, Butler has been inconsistence since then, going 6-for-21, but with a couple of big games thrown in there. Still just 22, Butler will rake over the long haul, I’m confident. I’d recommend him in all formats at this time, with a particular emphasis in keeper and AL-only leagues.

J.A. Happ, Philadelphia, SP: Happ, who first gained prominence when he was named a Rising Star in the AFL in 2006, has been recalled from the Triple-A Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs to replace the struggling Brett Myers, sent down until he learns to keep the ball in the park. Happ, a 25-year-old lefty, had shown tremendous progress at Triple-A this year, going 5-6 with a 3.54 ERA, with a much improved groundball rate. In 101 2/3 IP, he’s giving up just 91 hits (11 homers), while fanning a very impressive 104. In his first start against the Mets, the 2004 third round pick allowed just three hits and two runs in 4 2/3 innings, but he walked four. He is guaranteed at least one more start prior to the All Star break, and is someone to definitely consider in NL-only leagues and obviously in keeper formats.

J.R. Towles, Houston, C: Well, we dissed him when he was down, so it’s only fair to send some kudos his way as Towles turned things around at Triple-A Round Rock (.279 in 19 games and 61 at bats, with 15 runs, five homers, 11 RBI and an impressive .380 OBP). This recovery prompted the ‘Stros to give the kid another shot (he flopped at the beginning of the year, you’ll recall) when Humberto Quintero went down with an injury last week. Towles has recorded hits in two of the three games since his recall, including a double and two RBI. Baby steps, for sure, but this 24-year-old has tremendous offensive potential so he needs to be picked up in NL-only and definitely in keeper leagues.

Brett Gardner, New York Yankees, OF: Gardner was originally called up originally to replace Hideki Matsui (knee), but with Johnny Damon also banged up, there’s a chance for him to get some decent PT with the Yankees. Okay, he’s really struggled since his recall (1-for-16), but this 24-year-old has taken huge strides forward at Triple-A this year and has true top-of-the-order skills, so is someone worth considering in keeper formats or for AL-only league owners seeking some speed. In 80 games at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre this year, Gardner has scored 59 runs, has 11 doubles, 10 triples, 61 walks, 34 steals and an 841 OPS. Like I said, he’s a burner, and has already shown flashes of it with a couple of steals for the Yanks.

Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins, SP: If you’re seeking some under-the-radar pitching help, take a peek at Johnson. He tossed eight scoreless innings in his last rehab start Friday for Double-A Carolina and is expected to come off the DL and perhaps start Friday for the Fish. The 24-year-old southpaw is coming off Tommy John surgery that cost him virtually the entire 2007 season, but let’s not forget those numbers from his very solid 2006 season: a 3.10 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and 133 Ks in 157 IP. Johnson is a solid grab in NL-only leagues and should be added to rosters in deep NL-only leagues. Do remember, of course, that he’s coming off TJS so temper your expectations, but at the very least, do yourself a favour and consider him as an option.

 

Fantasy Notes: Mauer Power

In case you hadn’t noticed, Joe Mauer is enjoying a fine comeback season after slipping in 2007. He was red hot in June, batting .341 with his first three dingers of the year (right after we bemoaned his lack of pop), 11 doubles and 13 RBI. Heading into action Saturday, Mauer is riding a five-game hit streak, but he has yet to record an extra-base hit in July after finally flexing his muscles last month. While Mauer competes for his second batting title in three years, one disappointing facet of his game for fantasy owners has been his complete lack of speed. While Mauer has swiped 36 bases since 2005, he’s failed to dent the goose egg yet this year, leaving his lofty BA somewhat hollow. Still, as long as he remains at catcher – and off-season talk of a move to third base seems to have quieted – who wouldn’t take a fantasy catcher batting .324?

Don’t look now, but Ryan Howard is heating up. He’s hit in seven straight games, and while just two of those were of the multi-hit variety, it’s good enough to jack his BA up ten points. RyHo is off to a super start in July, promising after he slipped again in June coming off a May in which he showed signs of life with ten homers and 30 RBI. Despite the recent hot streak, Howard is suffering through the worst season of his career, but he appears poised for a second-half turnaround: consider that over the last three years, he’s recorded an OPS of 1087 after the break compared to just 910 before hand. Consider Howard a solid buy-low candidate.

Speaking of stars turning it on, Grady Sizemore, despite his inconsistency, has progressively gotten better as the season has moved along. In June, he hit .281 with nine homers, six steals, eight doubles, 20 runs and 16 RBI. And so far this month, Sizemore has sandwiched a monster game around a pair of 0-fers. Sure, his BA and runs have slipped for the second straight year, but considering he’s leading the AL in home runs, and is on pace for a career high in that department, as well as in steals, you’re probably not complaining. In fact, Sizemore has an excellent shot at joining the exclusive 40-40 club, especially if he can get on base more often in the second half. We talked about Sizemore as an MVP candidate heading into the season, and while the BA and Cleveland’s down year will hold him back, there’s a decent chance he could be the fantasy MVP thanks to the dingers and steals. Right now, he’s definitely playing like a top ten player; jack that BA up in the second half, and he will soar up the list.

Kevin Youkilis has shaken off a mini slump with back-to-back multi-hit games. Although he didn’t quite flash his May power in June, it was a superb month for Youk, as he hit .337 with eight walks. If he can stay healthy, I expect to see him continue this career year. What’s surprising about Youkilis’ season is that as he’s become a more aggressive hitter, drawing walks at his slowest pace ever, his average has soared. Was the Greek God of Walks being too selective?

Why is Chris Burke still a major leaguer? Reduced to a super-sub role (although he’s not playing much), he’s been absolutely unacceptable offensively. He isn’t getting on base, and what little pop he’s flashed in the past is completely gone. Right now, the only thing between him and the unemployment line appears to be his ability to play multiple positions. I don’t care if you play in a 40-team NL-only league – there’s no reason to look at Burke right now.

Once again, I suggest you pick up Adam LaRoche while you can. He’s about to go on one of his patented tears in the second half. You heard it here first.

I wasn’t sold on Dan Haren this year, given his second-half slide in 2007, but man, is he ever selling me now. Although his 8-5 mark this season isn’t exactly screaming Cy Young candidate, take a look at how good his peripherals are. In his last five starts, Haren has been absolutely grooving, with just 23 hits and six runs – five earned – allowed in 33 IP. He’s given up just one homer (none in his last four starts), walked just five and fanned 32. Yet he’s only 2-1 to show over this period thanks to some awful run support. In June, Haren was as tough as any starter in the game, going 3-0, 1.32, with just 25 hits allowed and 36 strikeouts in 41 IP. He has never been this tough to hit in his career (just 95 hits allowed in 117 2/3 IP), is doing a better job of keeping the ball in the park and has been showing impeccable control.

I’d keep a close eye on John Maine if I owned him. He’s enjoying a very strong season, but scuffled a bit in June – especially in his last start when he was tattooed by the Cardinals the day after saying he was fighting through a dead arm period. Maine insists he is not dealing with pain, and will make his scheduled start against the Phillies Saturday. Watch his results closely. I’m tempted to suggest sitting him, but his recent domination in Philly is too tempting to not start him.

Lance Berkman snapped a mini slump Friday with two hits, including a double and RBI single. After his simply ridiculous May (.471, nine homers, six steals, 31 runs), June must have seemed like a slump when he batted “only†.319 with just five homers, 21 RBI, 15 runs and two steals. But what a season for the ages the MVP candidate is having. In 85 games, he’s scored 74 runs with 110 hits, has already surpassed his 2007 totals in doubles and triples, has driven in 69 and set a new career high in steals. He’s batting .355, and if not for Chipper Jones, would have an excellent chance at his first batting title.

 

Minor Matters: Baby Birds

You’ve got to be impressed with the turnaround the Baltimore Orioles’ organization has undergone in the last year. After failing to win even 70 games last season, the O’s are playing better than .500 ball through the first three months of the season, with homegrown talent playing a vital role in the resurgence.

Anchored by organization-developed stars like Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis, Daniel Cabrera and Garrett Olson, a system that was in total disarray very recently is now at very least mediocre, and improving rapidly. The last three drafts have proved much more fruitful for the O’s, something that will stead this team well as it looks to make hay in the tough AL East in the coming years.

Let’s examine some of the future Orioles we’ll be hearing more about soon:

Colin Allen, a 21-year-old righty the O’s selected in the 22nd round last year, has been almost untouchable so far this season with the Rookie-level Bluefield Orioles. Armed with a go-to curveball and a 91 mph fastball, the converted outfielder has struck out 15 batters in a team-high 13 1/3 IP, limiting opponents to a BA under .175. Allen credits Bluefield pitching coach Troy Mattes with instilling in him the idea that pitchers shouldn’t give hitters too much credit – a concept that’s stead the youngster very well as he puts himself on the map as a prospect.

Lance West, a 39th round pick in last month’s draft, is proving to be a real great late-round steal so far, seamlessly making the transition to the pro game. The 20-year-old is hitting for power (four homers, .730 SLG), average (almost .300) and is showing on-base skills (with an OBP of almost .425). Coming off back-to-back multi-hit games, West is on a tear and may be a candidate to move to Class-A before season’s end.

Catcher Wally Crancer, a 12th round pick in 2007, has made great strides offensively this season. Through 45 games at Class-A Delmarva, he’s batting .296 with four homers and 16 walks. He’s been converted from the outfield to help advance his career, and so far, it has not affected his offense, a very common occurance when a player is shifted, especially behind the plate. Crancer has also played some left and right field, DH and even first base, so the team is doing whatever it takes to keep the soon to be 24-year-old’s bat in the lineup. He’ll need to move quickly to have a chance to become a prospect.

I love what I’m seeing out of Zach Britton, a third round pick in 2006. The 6’2†lefty has handled the move up to Delmarva with ease this season, going 7-5 with an excellent 2.85 ERA through 16 starts. He’s yielded just 76 hits and 25 walks in 88 1/3 IP, fanning 64. Just 20 years old, this is a kid that needs to be watched.

Jake Arrieta, the O’s fifth rounder last year, is performing quite admirably in his professional debut for the Class-A Frederick Keys. Despite some recent struggles, the 22-year-old righty is 5-4 with an ERA barely over 3.00 and 91 Ks in 89 2/3 IP. He’s allowed just 64 hits. At one time, Arrieta was expected to go in the top 20 picks of the draft, but he slipped all the way to the fifth round when he pitched very inconsistently in the month leading up to the draft. He could prove to be a serious steal, and is someone to watch in keeper leagues.

Matt Wieters, the fifth overall pick last year, signed too late to make his pro debut in 2007, but man, is he ever living up to the hype this year. The 22-year-old switch hitting catcher dominating High-A ball, batting .345 with 15 homers and 44 walks in 69 games before a recent promotion to Double-A Bowie. Clearly, the higher level is not intimidating Wieters, as he continues to wield a potent bat (.292) with power (one homer and three doubles in 24 at bats) and superior plate discipline (five walks, three strikeouts). Make no mistake: this kid is the real deal, and it wouldn’t shock me if he’s ready to challenge for a starting job in B-More as soon as next spring. In fact, I would be shocked if Wieters isn’t in the majors by this time next year. Expect to see him at the very top of most prospect lists heading into 2009.

David Hernandez, Baltimore’s 16th round pick in 2005, has arrived as a prospect this season after some very middling results his first two pro seasons. The 23-year-old righty has made the jump to Double-A – the toughest leap for a pitcher – look easy. He’s 5-1, 2.63 with 100 strikeouts in 89 innings, while limiting opponents to a .209 BAA. Hernandez has been especially untouchable in his last four starts (seven hits and two earned runs in 24 2/3 IP, showing near no-hit stuff in back-to-back starts), so if he can sharpen his control a smidgeon, we could have a serious prospect on our hands here.

Chris Tillman, Seattle’s second rounder in 2006 who came to the O’s in the Erik Bedard deal, has looked fantastic at Bowie. Just 20, this righty has a very bright future, and the fact that he’s been able to maintain a solid K rate (81 in 79 IP) despite the jump to a higher level at such a young age has me very impressed. Opponents are batting just .214 against Tillman, a name that needs to targeted in keeper leagues.

Outfielder Nolan Reimold, despite solid numbers, has been a bit of a disappointment at Double-A only because in his half-season there in 2007, he was fantastic. Still, he’s coming around of late and definitely looks to have his power mojo back with six dingers, a double and nine RBI in the last five games. If this keeps up, he could find himself at Camden before season’s end.

 

Pittsburgh Pirates Fantasy Report

The Pirates have taken nice strides forward this year, especially offensively, as they continue to hang around within striking distance of .500.

After winning the final two games in Cincy, Pittsburgh has carved out sole possession of fourth place in the NL Central, but despite holding their own lately, the Bucs are losing ground on the hot Brewers and need to watch out for the recently resurgent Astros below them.

At 40-44, Pittsburgh sits ten and a half games behind the division leading Cubs and eight back of the Wild Card leading Cardinals, so it’s going to take a miracle to pull this one out of the fire. On the plus side, the Pirates get a chance to go right after the third-place Brewers next, a series that should give us an indication whether Pittsburgh will make any noise in the Central or not.

Kudos to the Bucco offense, third in the NL in runs after finishing 12th a year ago.

Pitching and team speed, however, remain works in progress. Pittsburgh is dead last in the NL in steals, team ERA, BAA, OPS against (814), WHIP and quality starts.

Nate McLouth has been absolutely money this year, emerging as a must-own fantasy outfielder. A slump last week and a sore knee led to a day off on Monday, but he’s roared back with three hits, including two doubles, in nine at bats in the two games since, drawing a pair of walks to boot. McLouth has been slipping since a torrid start to the season, so perhaps July is the beginning of good things for him again.

Luis Rivas, however, has scuffled badly this year. He enjoyed a rare big game Wednesday, with two hits, including a double, a run and an RBI, but after a big May, Rivas was just awful in June, batting only .190 and managing just 21 at bats. If he could learn to get on base a bit more often and carve out some more PT, Rivas might be someone worth watching in NL-only leagues – especially with that multi-positional eligibility – but for now, he is a non-factor in any format.

Then you have Jason Bay, and the Canadian boy is clearly back after a sub par 2007. He snapped a mini-slump with two hits, a run and an RBI on Wednesday, so hopefully July will be a better month for Bay than June. But in looking at his overall results, Bay is enjoying a fine season at the plate, and has almost reached his entire 2007 total for doubles already.

Another must-own Pirate and perhaps the biggest fantasy surprise on the team this year is catcher Ryan Doumit. He snapped a brief slump Wednesday with two hits and three runs, and is hoping to build on a big June during which he smacked five dingers and drove in ten despite spending a chunk of the month on the DL. Doumit is enjoying the classic age 27 power spike, having already set a new career high in dingers as he finally is getting his chance as the Pirates’ No. 1 catcher.

Xavier Nady is yet another must-have Buc in the midst of a career year. Wednesday, he decided to set off some early fireworks, smacking two homers among a three-hit, three-RBI game, to run his current his streak to five games. Nady was relatively cool in June (just one homer and four RBI), but clearly, July will be a better power month for the 29-year-old right fielder. He’s well on his way to career highs in many offensive categories, including runs and hits. Enjoy the ride if you own Nady.

First baseman Adam LaRoche has been a particularly more frustrating player to own this season, but he looks to be getting hot right now, so astute owners in need of an infusion of offense will consider him. After singling and tripling in two runs Wednesday, LaRoche has now recorded three straight multi-hit efforts and has at least one hit in five straight games. June wasn’t an overly successful month for LaRoche, but he’s blazing now and could be poised for a big second half. While his power is way down this year, recall what he’s capable of doing in just a half-season: In 2006, he launched 19 home runs while batting almost .325 after the All-Star break. I’m not saying that’s going to happen again, but anytime this dude starts to heat up, like he is now, you’d be wise to pay attention.

Over at the other corner of the infield, I’d suggest it’s time for second look at third baseman Jose Bautista. He delivered an RBI groundout and solo homer Wednesday, the second straight game he’s produced an extra-base hit and at least one RBI. While April was a total writeoff for Bautista, he’s actually been a very solid player since: .292 BA with nine homers and 30 RBI. Yet another 27-year-old experiencing a power spike, Bautista is headed for his first 20-homer season and is helping out in BA. I’d definitely say he’s flying under the radar right now, especially in NL-only leagues.

I sort of had John Van Benschoten on my sleeper list (if for no other reason than Pittsburgh is currently a land of opportunity for pitchers), but he took a serious beating Wednesday, giving up five hits – including three home runs – and five runs in just 2 1/3 IP. I keep waiting for this now 28-year-old righty to come close to living up to his prospect status, but it’s getting frustrating doing so. I can’t recommend him in any format at this time, and in fact, won’t be shocked if he is sent back to Triple-A despite the Pirates’ pitching woes. Because of his pedigree, JVB is always someone to at least watch, but we can’t consider him a viable option until he actually shows us something.

The biggest fantasy news out of Steel City right now is, of course, the injury to closer Matt Capps. His shoulder won’t require surgery – that’s the good news – but will keep him out for eight weeks – ugh. Considering how money Capps has been this season, it was pretty clear something was awry after he blew back-to-back save chances earlier this week, giving him five blown saves since June 10. In Capps’ absence, you better jump all over Damaso Marte while you can. Before he came to Pittsburgh, Marte served as a co-closer for the White Sox, so he will likely get the first crack at the job.

 

Boston Red Sox Fantasy Report

After scuffling in Houston and dropping the first game of a three-game set in Tampa, Boston has dropped to 50-35 and has fallen a game and a half behind the upstart Rays in the AL East race. Luckily, the Sox get two more cracks at the Rays before heading off to Yankee Stadium for a four-game series.

The offense continues to flourish for Boston, with the team ranking first in the AL in BA (.280), OBP (.354) and OPS (805). However, the pitching remains middling, with the BoSox currently sitting in sixth place in team ERA, WHIP (1.34) and quality starts (45).

J.D. Drew finished off a dream June with another home run Monday – his 12th of the month and 16th of the year. To put that in perspective, he launched more dingers last month than he did during his entire first season in Boston. Having said that, he’s not exactly scorching like he did at the beginning of the month. In fact, Drew was mired in an 0-for-14 funk before smacking a dinger in the first game of the Houston series and he hasn’t had more than one hit in a game since June 18. But oh baby, does he ever love interleague play. He’s hit 27 home runs as a Red Sox and nine of those came in the first 30 games against NL opponents. Finally, Drew’s major resurgence this year has included smacking the big bombs – the three-run dinger he launched against Houston was his fourth long ball this year of either the three- or four-run variety – tops on the club.

Speaking of the Houston series, a few Red Sox alumni showed up at the ballpark, including Pat Rapp, there to watch BP with some kids; Tim Naehring was there, scouting the game for the Yanks, and was later joined for dinner by Kevin Jarvis, another former BoSox, albeit very briefly.

The Red Sox have been busy signing some of their minor league draft choices recently. Former Rice star RHP Bryan Price, the 45th overall selection in the draft, was penned last week. He’s been assigned to the Lowell Spinners of the NYPL. The 21-year-old doesn’t have too much wear and tear on his arm, a rarity among college hurlers. Price was plucked with the compensation pick the Sox received when free agent Eric Gagne signed with the Brewers.

The Sox pen had been on a roll lately, but David Aardsma has been taking a beating. After cruising along with seven straight scoreless outings, Aardsma has been touched up for at least one run in each of his past two appearances, sending his ERA up almost half a run and close to the 3.00 mark. Notwithstanding this recent hiccup, Aardsma is enjoying a breakout year, averaging over a K per inning and keeping the ball in the park. He’s carved out a nice place for himself as a set-up man in the Boston bullpen, and is definitely someone worth watching in deeper AL-only leagues.

Boston also signed RHP Pete Ruiz, the club’s tenth rounder. He’s a large (6’3â€, 205) 20-year-old who features a smooth delivery. His fastball has late life to it and he mixes in a 12-to-6 curveball.

Finally, the Sox signed their 41st round pick, Dustin Mercadante, a 19-year-old righty who throws an 86 to 88 mph fastball with good sink. He’s off to an excellent start with the GCL Red Sox, recording a 1.93 ERA through his first three appearances.

Jon Lester was slapped around badly in his last start in Houston, but he’d been on a serious roll. Prior to that start, Lester had gone 3-0, 1.62 over his previous four appearances, walking just three in 27 2/3 IP without a dinger allowed. Boston had gone 11-6 through Lester’s first 17 starts. While his last start has scared off some owners, Lester has matured greatly this season, so if he’s on your waiver wire, I’d definitely look into adding him.

Although he’s cooled in the past week, Julio Lugo has gained waiver wire momentum based on a June that was his finest month of the season (one homers, five RBI, five steals, .274 BA). He’s still striking out more than I’d like, has already set a career high by grounding into 11 double plays, and is just three errors shy of matching his entire total from 2007. After approaching his career high in ribbies in 2007, Lugo’s RBI production has plummeted this year thanks to a .229 BA with runners on and a butt-ugly .154 mark when runners are in scoring position. Having said that, after the win in Game One in Houston, the Sox were 44-25 when Lugo manned short and 6-7 when anyone else was there. That’s got to count for something, so consider Lugo if you need middle infield help. He’s trending in the right direction.

Daisuke Matsuzaka’s fine season continued with five shutout innings Friday for his ninth win of the season. While his injury last month has limited his overall innings count and his K rate has slipped, Dice-K has done a much better job of limiting the gopher ball and avoiding the big inning that plagued him so in his first North American campaign.

If Boston can get back to the Series, the pitching staff better take some serious BP. So far, Sox hurlers are proving to be automatic outs, going 0-for-25 with 18 strikeouts this season.

The Sox bullpen had been rolling with 12 straight shutout innings until Hideki Okajimi served up a dinger in the eighth inning Friday. The Japanese southpaw righted the ship somewhat Sunday, tossing two-thirds of a shutout frame, but June was definitely a month worth forgetting about for him. In 9 1/3 IP, he was torched for 19 hits and five walks, recording a 9.64 ERA. During the first two months of the season, Okajima was virtually flawless, so don’t give up on him. But for now, he needs to be benched until he gets on another roll.

By the way, it was remiss of me not to aknowledge the second anniversary of RotoRob, which happened on Saturday. Thanks to all our readers and our great staff of writers for making us such a success!

 


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